Politics & Policy

Silver Skeptical of Brickley’s Chances

Nate Silver argues that the poll showing Ann Brickley behind Rep. John Larson by only seven points is a little rosy about the Republican’s chances:

many of the polls . . . were “robopolls” that used automated scripts rather than live interviewers. . . . 

Robopolls have not shown any persistent bias in the past — but this year, they have been 2 to 4 points more favorable to Republicans than traditional surveys, and the differences have tended to be larger in polls of House races as opposed to conducted in Senate or gubernatorial campaigns.

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