Politics & Policy

Thursday Senate Scan

Kentucky: Former President Bill Clinton will visit the state next week to stump for Democratic candidate Jack Conway.

Missouri: Two new polls show Rep. Roy Blunt (R) with a considerable lead over Robin Carnahan (D). A CNN/Time poll has Blunt leading 53 percent to 40 percent among likely voters, while a Rasmussen poll has Blunt leading 51 to 43 percent. CNN’s poll indicates Carnahan is struggling among women voters, which is a bad sign for any Democrat, male or female:

“Carnahan does 20 points better among lower-income voters than among those who make more than $50,000,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

“She wins a 53 percent majority among the lower-income group but only 33 percent among the higher-income voters. That gap is bigger than the gender gap or generation gap in the Missouri race this year.”

That’s not to say that gender doesn’t matter. “Roy Blunt is achieving what many Republicans can only wish for – he has nearly a majority of the women’s vote in Missouri,” says Holland. “Among women it’s 49 percent for Blunt and just 44 percent for Carnahan. That’s bad news for any Democrat, but for a Democratic woman, it’s a major problem.”

New Hampshire: An American Research Group poll has Republican Kelly Ayotte leading Rep. Paul Hodes (D) by just five points — 47 percent to 42 percent — with seven percent undecided. Other recent polls had shown Ayotte with much larger leads. Unfortunately for Hodes fans, this latest result came from a “random sample of registered voters,” and is therefor unlikely to be an accurate reflection of the race.

Washington: A GOP-sponsored poll has Dino Rossi leading Sen. Patty Murray by 6 points — 48 percent to 42 percent — among likely voters. Several recent polls had showed the race statistically tied or with Murray slightly leading. In the latest poll, 51 percent of voters said it was time to elect a new Senator — up from 46 percent who said so in June — amd 39 percent said Murray should be reelected. 

Rossi has a slightly higher favorability rating, according to the survey — 46 percent of voters view him favorably, 41 percent unfavorably. For Murray, 45 percent view her favorably and 45 percent unfavorably.

Wisconsin: The Milwaukee-Journal Sentinel explores what could be the state’s most conservative electorate in decades. It’s a pretty stunning progression:

Wisc. electorate 2004 — Liberals: 20%   Moderates: 49%   Conservatives: 32%

Wisc. electorate 2006 — Liberals: 24%   Moderates: 50%   Conservatives: 27%

Wisc. electorate 2008 — Liberals: 23%   Moderates: 47%   Conservatives: 31%

Wisc. electorate 2010* — Liberals: 19%   Moderates: 32%   Conservatives: 47%

*According to a recent CNN/Time poll.

Andrew StilesAndrew Stiles is a political reporter for National Review Online. He previously worked at the Washington Free Beacon, and was an intern at The Hill newspaper. Stiles is a 2009 ...


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