• Nate Silvers writes on “Understand and Misunderstanding the ‘Enthusiasm Gap’”
• Mark Blumenthal tackles the question “What is a likely voter?“
• Kentucky: “Mmmmm, smell those waffles?” The NRSC revisits a familiar theme in its latest ad, going after Jack Conway for his conflicting positions on the Bush tax cuts:
• Missouri: Rep. Roy Blunt (R) will report raising more than $2 million over the last three months.
The seven-term Republican congressman’s total falls in the same neighborhood as his second quarter haul, when he brought in a staggering $2.2 million.
Blunt’s campaign said it did not have the exact total tallied or its cash on hand number ready and signaled it would be released officially next week.
Spokesman Rich Chrismer said a large number of donors contributed through the campaign website.
“We are well-positioned for the final 28 days, and this further demonstrates that we will have the resources necessary to win and to fight back against the millions of dollars being spent on false attack ads by Robin Carnahan’s liberal special interests,” Chrismer said.
Blunt’s opponent, Robin Carnahan, who raised $1.5 million in the last quarter, will report her campaign’s latest fundraising figures later this month.
• New York: The race between Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) and Joe DioGuardi (R) has been heating up of late, though the incumbent Democrat continues to lead in the polls. DioGuardi’s campaign has sought a gentler tone with this new, largely autobiographical ad:
• Wisconsin: That was fast. After being reprimanded by the NFL for using league footage of former Minnesota Viking receiver Randy Moss pretending to “moon” the crowd at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Sen. Russ Feingold’s campaign did some editing and is back on the air with this revised version:
• Washington: After weeks of bickering, the first debate between Dino Rossi (R) and Sen.Patty Murray (D) has been set for October 14. Now the bickering over the second debate can begin:
The October 14 debate will take place in Spokane, broadcast on KSPS Public Television, and streamed online. The second debate is already getting a bit heated before its even begun. Senator Murray’s HQ has accused Dino Rossi of denying voters the “opportunity to hear from both candidates.” She wants to have a debate only a few days after the first – right when ballots are sent out. Rossi wants a larger gap. Maybe we’ll end up having no debate. Either way, Murray’s demands seem to suggest a hint of desperation and worry over the November election outcome.