Politics & Policy

Boxer Ahead … if More Dems Vote in 2010 than in 2006

A new SurveyUSA poll shows Sen. Barbara Boxer eight points ahead of Republican senate candidate Carly Fiorina, 46 percent to 38 percent.

But looking at the likely voters used for the poll sample shows that SurveyUSA assumed more Democrats and fewer Republicans would be voting in this election than did in 2006. CNN’s exit poll numbers for 2006 — a year where Democrats did very well — revealed that 41 percent of voters were Democrat, 35 percent Republican, and 25 percent Independent. SurveyUSA’s demographics for the 2010 California senate election — a year where it appears the enthusiasm gap is favoring the GOP — are 42 percent Democrat, 32 percent Republican, and 23 percent Independent.

Katrina TrinkoKatrina Trinko is a political reporter for National Review. Trinko is also a member of USA TODAY’S Board of Contributors, and her work has been published in various media outlets ...

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