State Senator Dan Debicella tells Battle ‘10 he feels good about his chances of defeating Rep. Jim Himes tonight. “As of eleven o’clock this morning, we’re seeing very strong turnout in towns that we think we’re going to win by significant margins,” says Debicella. “The turnout was above 20 percent in towns like New Canaan, Darien, and Shelton.”
As for Democratic strongholds — in particular, Bridgeport — turnout appears to be lower. “The turnout in Democratic heavy areas does not appear to be as intense as in Republican heavy areas,” says Debicella, before warning that his evidence is anecdotal.
Last-minute trends are breaking for the Republican challenger. The latest public polls showed him leading the Democratic incumbent by two to four points — margins that were consistent with those of his internal polls.
Still, the key to Debicella’s victory remains turnout. One road to victory is for Debicella to win 16 of the 17 towns in the fourth congressional district — that is, every town but Bridgeport — by 15,000 to 20,000 votes. If Debicella loses Bridgeport by under 15,000 votes, he wins. If he loses it by over 20,000, he loses. And if loses it by a margin in between 15,000 and 20,000, he’s got close race on his hands.