Following up on my earlier post, there are three more Republicans with a chance to pick up House seats currently occupied by Democrats.
In NY-23, which stretches New York’s Canadian border, Republican Matt Doheny will likely defeat incumbent Democrat Bill Owens, according to recent polls. Owens has served since November 6, 2009, after winning a peculiar special election which resulted from Republican John M. McHugh’s appointment as Secretary of the Army, and attendant resignation of his House seat. One cause for concern: Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman remains on the ballot; he has, in recent weeks, encouraged his supporters to get behind Doheny.
In NY-29, expect a landslide victory for Republican Thomas Reed over Democrat Matthew Zeller. Reed has benefited from a huge fundraising advantage and some bad press for Democrats in the area. Zeller, nota bene, is not an incumbent — the seat was previously held by the disgraced, and now resigned, Democrat Eric Massa.
NY-24 looks to be a tossup, with the New York Times giving incumbent Democrat Michael Arcuri a 60 percent chance at victory over Richard Hanna, his Republican challenger. Hanna is another remarkable figure, with a business background, but an academic bent signaled by his involvement with Cato Institute study groups. Arcuri polls 50.8 percent to Hanna’s 49.2 percent, so voter turnout will be crucial.
And, Republicans will almost certainly keep the only two House seats (out of New York’s 29) they had coming into this election — Peter King in NY-3, and Christopher Lee in NY-26 will both be reelected. Lastly, if you missed it before, check out my post on Republicans Chris Gibson and Nan Hayworth, also likely winners.
The rest of New York? Mostly Democratic shoo-ins, with a few whispers that Democrats Tim Bishop and Maurice Hinchey could be unseated, and a slight chance for Republicans on Staten Island. More on these later.