Politics & Policy

New York Update

As expected, Democrats win in blow-outs in the gubernatorial and senatorial elections. But there’s some good news for conservatives in the Empire State

NY-01 is closer than expected. With 40 percent of precincts reporting, Democratic incumbent Timothy Bishop is leading Republican challenger Randy Altschuler 52 percent to 48. That’s a difference of about 800 votes. [UPDATE: With 78 percent of precincts reporting, Bishop leads by about 3,600 votes, 51 to 49 percent.]

NY-04 shows Republican Francis Becker trailing Democratic incumbent Carolyn McCarthy 57 to 43 percent — with only 24 percent of precincts reporting.

NY-13 is a big surprise. Republican Mike Grimm is actually leading Democratic incumbent Michael McMahon 51 to 48 percent, or 43,678 to 40,919. This is huge. The fivethirtyeight model gave McMahon a 90 percent chance at reelection.

In NY-19 and NY-20, Republicans Nan Hayworth and Chris Gibson, respectively, are sailing to easy victories against Democratic incumbents. They’re going to win, and once they’re in office they’ll be ones to watch.

NY-23 could be a source of consternation to New York conservatives. Democratic incumbent Bill Owens is currently leading Republican challenger Matthew Doheny, with only 48 percent of the vote! So what gives? As reporter Tim Mak tweeted, “Doheny is down by about five points. The margin of error? Doug Hoffman.” Hoffman, the Conservative-party nominee, decided to get behind Doheny in October, but not before it was too late to get his name off of the ballot on the Conservative line.

NY-24 is another strong victory for Republicans. Richard Hanna currently leads incumbent Democrat Michael Arcuri by over 9,000 votes, with 79 percent of precincts reporting.

NY-25 is surprisingly close, but probably not close enough. Republican Ann Marie Buerkle trails incumbent Democrat Daniel Maffei 51 to 49 percent — a 3,600 vote difference — with 92 percent of precincts reporting.

In NY-29, Republican Thomas Reed will certainly win against Thomas Zeller in their race for the disgraced Eric Massa’s seat.

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