Public Policy Polling, the Democrat firm that has Pat Toomey leading Joe Sestak by five, at 51 to 46 percent, elaborates on its polling by predicting a “sweep” for Republicans in the Keystone State.
President Obama is perhaps the biggest reason Toomey and Corbett are projected to do well tomorrow:
In the Senate race Pat Toomey leads Joe Sestak 51-46 and in the race for Governor Tom Corbett is up 52-45 on Dan Onorato. The story here is an inordinate number of Democrats unhappy with Barack Obama- and voting Republican because of it. The President’s approval rating within his own party is only 73% in Pennsylvania, with 21% of Democrats disapproving of him. Those Democrats unhappy with Obama are leaning strongly Republican, planning to vote for Toomey by a 68-23 margin and for Corbett by a 69-25 spread.
What that leads to overall is 15-19% of Democrats voting Republican in these two races. Meanwhile GOP voters are extremely unified, giving each of their nominees 88%. Independents are splitting pretty evenly so it is that party unity advantage that has the GOP candidates in a position to win here.
As is the case for him throughout the Midwest Obama’s very unpopular in Pennsylvania with 54% of voters disapproving of him to just 40% who think he’s doing a good job. Outgoing Governor Ed Rendell has also fallen strongly out of favor, posting only a 34% approval number while 53% of voters disapprove of him. …
Any thought that Democrats might have been better off with Arlen Specter as their nominee can be laid to rest. We asked respondents how they would have voted in a hypothetical match up between him and Toomey led 49-40, an even wider lead than the one he’s posting against Sestak. [emphasis added]