Portland, Ore.
Could Oregon governor John Kitzhaber, a three-term Democrat, lose his bid for reelection because of scandals involving his fiancée? After Kitzhaber survived a cavalcade of embarrassing and expensive failures of state government, could he lose to Republican Dennis Richardson because of the Oregon first lady’s consulting business?
If that scenario comes to pass, it would be an unexpected gift for Oregon Republicans, who are in no position to turn down any good news anywhere.
Kitzhaber’s fiancée, Cylvia Hayes, is experiencing perhaps the most embarrassing and tumultuous month of any governor’s spouse in the country. First a local newspaper revealed that she had a previously unrevealed marriage in 1997, which she later admitted was part of a fraudulent scheme to get an immigrant a visa. Then she admitted that around the same time, she helped purchase some land for an attempt to grow marijuana illegally.
She insisted that Kitzhaber never knew of these past crimes. Then she hit the scandal trifecta:
On Oct. 8, Willamette Week reported Hayes has pushed for the state to change its economic and energy policies while accepting payments from private advocacy groups seeking to influence those same policies.
In some cases, Hayes solicited private consulting contracts with groups she was already working with in her public role as first lady and adviser to Kitzhaber. Records show she has routinely used her title as first lady and as adviser to Kitzhaber when making paid appearances at the behest of her private clients.
State ethics law prohibits public officials from using public resources for personal benefit. That would include Mahonia Hall, the governor’s mansion owned by the state.
The first lady’s private consulting business appears to leave a glaringly open door for backdoor contributions to her husband and/or the buying of favors. (Somewhere, former Virginia governor Bob McDonnell is wondering why his wife couldn’t have set up that arrangement.)
The two soap-opera-style scandals are likely to generate sympathy for the governor and aren’t terribly relevant to the here and now except for how they relate to the third scandal — that Hayes in the past thought some laws were worth breaking and that she lies or withholds information from people when the truth might prove inconvenient.
Richardson has been on the attack ever since, declaring in the final debate, “Governor, that’s not okay. That’s corruption.”
Oregon elections are entirely vote-by-mail, and state election officials started mailing the ballots on October 15. All of the first lady’s scandals broke in the final days before ballots arrived.
The GOP has won statewide races in some pretty tough territory in recent cycles — Chris Christie’s two wins in New Jersey, Mark Kirk’s senatorial win in Illinois, Scott Brown’s special-election win in Massachusetts — but Oregon remains one of the toughest nuts to crack. Unlike some other deep-blue states, this was much friendlier territory for Republicans not long ago — the state had at least one Republican U.S. senator from 1966 until 2008, and the GOP controlled the state senate from 1995 to 2002 and the state house of representatives from 1992 to 2006.
Heading into this year, Richardson appeared to have a golden opportunity. Kitzhaber is seeking an unprecedented fourth term after the Cover Oregon health-care debacle, an embarrassing education-reform czar, frivolous junkets, and an electorate greeting the prospect of another four years with weary resignation at best. Since the earliest polls in the cycle, Kitzhaber has polled in the mid to upper 40s, a vulnerable level of support for an incumbent. And yet there’s little sign that Kitzhaber’s troubled third term will be much of an obstacle to his reelection bid. The only sign of any progress for Richardson is one poll putting him down by seven points — which is actually a bigger margin than some polls showed in early spring.
Kitzhaber’s television ads follow the predictable too-extreme-for-our-fair-state tone, citing his opponent’s past comments on abortion, gay marriage, and deporting illegal immigrants, and concluding: “That’s Dennis Richardson. That’s not Oregon.”
It would be easy — too easy — to conclude that social-conservative positions are what’s holding Richardson back. For what it’s worth, he’s not emphasizing them; he declared in the final debate that he felt the state’s positions on most social issues were settled and that “it’s not going to be part of the agenda while I’m governor. We will be focusing on our economy, jobs, education, and restoring trust and accountability in government office.”
But the contrast in the state’s U.S. Senate race offers an interesting parallel. Democratic senator Jeff Merkel is an unimpressive, bland incumbent with a relentlessly partisan voting record. He won his first Senate election in 2008 with the Obama wind at his back — winning 172,000 fewer votes than the president.
Merkeley’s Republican rival, pediatric neurosurgeon Monica Wehby, is pro-gay-marriage and is running a television ad featuring Ben West, one of the plaintiffs in the lawsuit that overturned Oregon’s ban on gay marriage.
“I know she’ll fight for every Oregon family — including mine,” West declares.
Yet there’s no real sign that Wehby’s stance, or that ad, will change the dynamics of the race. She began the cycle trailing by double digits, and the most recent polls have her trailing by double digits. The anti-gay-marriage Republican running statewide can’t get traction, nor can the pro-gay-marriage one.
The non-marital problems facing Governor Kitzhaber aren’t too different from the problems facing Barack Obama. Both men ran for office by making grand promises of a bold, big-spending government taking dramatic action, a reflection of the deep compassion of the chief executive. But then once the mightily touted programs began, problems multiplied. The chief executive said his staff didn’t inform him of the problems or keep him up to date. Like Obama in 2012, Kitzhaber is now running ads declaring that his opponent isn’t one of us.
And like Republicans fuming over a runaway debt, the Benghazi attack, and other signs of a failing presidency in 2012, Oregon Republicans are wondering how the electorate can be so blasé about awful scandals. Can’t anyone summon outrage over the state’s spending $305 million for a website that doesn’t work?
Perhaps the lack of voter outrage reflects an electorate content with life outside the realm of politics and government. Life is good in Oregon, if you can afford it, and while the state’s cost of living is inching up as it becomes more popular, it’s still cheaper than in many other parts of the country.
An early episode of the Independent Film Channel’s sketch-comedy show Portlandia declared, “Portland is where young people go to retire.” But there’s actually a stronger undercurrent of entrepreneurship than outsiders think, reflected in the explosion in restaurants, food trucks, wineries, breweries, and distilleries. The state once relished an image as an outdoorsman’s paradise, and now it’s a foodie’s paradise.
Two referendums on the ballot this year may indicate what really stirs the passions of Oregonians. The most expensive referendum fight in state history will be resolved next month when Oregonians decide Measure 92, mandating the labeling of genetically altered food. Polling puts support at 49 percent and opposition at 44 percent. Last year Washington-state voters rejected a similar measure, 55 percent to 45 percent.
ABOVE: A sign in support of Measure 92 at the Blue Scorcher Café in Astoria, Ore.
The other high-profile referendum, Measure 91, would have Oregon follow Colorado and Washington on the path of legalized marijuana. Passage is expected: “At this point, 52 percent support Measure 91 while 41 percent are opposed.” (It will probably not surprise you that more than a few Oregonians aren’t quite patient enough for the vote.)
Between the problems in his third term and the scandals involving his fiancée, Governor Kitzhaber may want as many Oregonians as possible lighting up and tuning out in a relaxed, laid-back state.
— Jim Geraghty writes the Campaign Spot on NRO.