Some GOP stars of 2010 run into the anti-incumbent mood of this year’s midterms.
While most eyes are fixed on whether Republicans will capture a Senate majority tonight, many of 2014’s closest elections may take place in gubernatorial races across the country. Eleven incumbent governors are engaged in close-fought races separated by four points or less.
In 2010, Republicans boasted a star class of governors: Scott Walker in Wisconsin, Nikki Haley in South Carolina, Sam Brownback in Kansas, Susana Martinez in New Mexico, Rick Snyder in Michigan, John Kasich in Ohio. Many were talked about as future presidential and vice-presidential candidates. While 2014 looks to be the year of the GOP Senate candidate, with fresh faces like Joni Ernst and Cory Gardner making headlines, the anti-incumbent tenor of this year’s midterms has produced a mixed bag for the GOP in the governors’ races.
Some of its stars, including Walker and Brownback, are on the ropes, but GOP candidates have had unexpected success in some traditionally blue states, including Obama’s Illinois. But tying Democratic candidates to President Obama is not easy to do in a governor’s race, which has made it difficult for Republican gubernatorial candidates to capitalize on the anti-incumbent mood in this year’s election.
Perhaps the most surprising trend is the showing of Republican gubernatorial candidates in the Northeast. In Massachusetts, Republican Charlie Baker has taken the lead over his opponent, Martha Coakley, after trailing her by nearly 30 points in the spring and by double digits this summer.
“Charlie Baker is very likely to win in Massachusetts,” GOP strategist Ford O’Connell tells National Review Online. Frank Luntz, a veteran Republican pollster, says the race may be a bellwether for close gubernatorial contests across the region, and he’ll be watching Massachusetts for an indication of how Republican candidates are likely to fare in Connecticut and Maine. O’Connell adds: “The races in Connecticut and Maine are going to be two of the closest races in the country.”
In Connecticut, Democratic governor Dannel Malloy is clinging to a slim lead over his Republican challenger, Tom Foley, while in Maine, Republican governor Paul LePage is running neck-and-neck with his opponent, Democrat Paul Michaud. Foley’s ads have been “sophomoric,” Luntz says, while Connecticut’s electorate remains “one of the most sophisticated and best educated” in the country. In one such ad, Foley calls Malloy “sad” and “desperate,” and Foley has released other promotional videos that show him interviewing people at a gas station and in a Target parking lot. Malloy’s ads, meanwhile, resorting to schoolyard-bully tactics, have shown Foley’s disgruntled former employees calling the Republican a liar. Foley trails Malloy by approximately one percentage point, according to the RealClearPolitics average, which puts him well within striking distance today. Recent polls show the races in New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Colorado, and Illinois all within one percentage point.
While incumbent Democrats in the Northeast are struggling to fend off their Republican challengers, the anti-establishment mood that has swept the country has also knocked some of the Republican party’s most promising politicians on their heels. In Wisconsin, Republican governor Scott Walker is running for the third time in four years and is clinging to a two-pecentage-point lead. Recent reports that Democratic candidate Mary Burke’s family fired her from Trek Bicycle Corp. for incompetence appear to have been a blessing for Walker in the final days of his campaign. In Kansas, it appears likely that Brownback will lose his reelection bid, as NRO has reported. Brownback’s fiscal reforms were the subject of internal disputes within the Kansas GOP and may have ultimately led to his demise.
According to O’Connell, however, all eyes should be on Florida, where a Republican loss would be “the one that is most detrimental to the long-term health of the Republican party.” O’Connell says that if Republican governor Rick Scott lost to Charlie Crist, that would make it very difficult for GOP presidential contenders to make inroads in Florida come 2016.
“You’ve got two candidates and it’s ‘Which one do you hate the least?’ — which is kind of sad with respect to Rick Scott,” he says. “Rick Scott doesn’t understand that if you don’t have the warm and fuzzies on the stump, you’re going to have a small problem.” The race is tied and Florida voters trust neither Crist nor Scott, who have both served as governor and are both perceived as incumbents. Recent polling shows 13 percent of likely voters refused to pledge support for either Scott or Crist, and another 7 percent remain undecided.
While Republican Senate candidates have capitalized on the federal government’s incompetence, statewide issues — the local economic situation, voters’ dissatisfaction with the direction in which individual states are headed — have burdened incumbent governors. “The difference is there’s no Barack Obama to blame, because the governor at the end of the day is the president of their state. It’s very hard to tie someone to Barack Obama . . . in a governor’s race,” O’Connell says. “Lord knows Rick Scott has tried.”
— Ryan Lovelace is a William F. Buckley Fellow at the National Review Institute.