Politics & Policy

Rubio vs. Cruz: The Fight for Conservatism

Cruz campaigns in Des Moines, November 20, 2015. (Gage Skidmore/Flickr)

In December 2011, the candidate who led in the Iowa polls was not Rick Santorum (who ultimately squeaked out a victory there), nor Michele Bachmann (who had driven Governor Tim Pawlenty from the race by winning the Iowa straw poll earlier in the year), nor Mitt Romney. No, the leader was Ron Paul, with 23 percent.

Public Policy Polling provided this analysis in mid-December:

Paul’s base of support continues to rely on some unusual groups for a Republican contest. Paul is . . . cleaning up 35–14 with the 24 percent of voters who identify as either Democrats or independents. Young people and non-Republicans are an unusual coalition to hang your hat on in Iowa, and it will be interesting to see if Paul can actually pull it off.

He couldn’t. The final results were 24.6 percent for Santorum, 24.6 percent for Romney (34 votes separated them), and 21.5 percent for Paul.

It’s important to remember that the mid-December poll showing Paul in the lead was a mere two weeks before the caucuses, which were held on January 3 that year. This year, the caucuses will be held on February 1.

In national polling in December 2011, the leader among Republicans was Newt Gingrich, with 37 percent, followed by Mitt Romney with 22 percent. Everyone else was in single digits. On February 18, 2012, Rick Santorum was on top with 34.3, according to the RealClearPolitics average.

All of this is by way of encouraging a certain amount of skepticism about the polls we’re seeing. Recent elections in Kentucky, Great Britain, Argentina, and Israel also featured outcomes that were not predicted by pre-election polling.

RELATED: Enough with the Triangulation, Rubio and Cruz Need to Show They Can Lead

Does this mean Donald Trump’s standing is illusory? No, his lead has remained steady for six months. But to believe that he will be the nominee you must believe that Republican voters from Iowa to Pennsylvania to California to Michigan will choose as their standard-bearer someone who has favored single-payer health care, racial preferences, a ban on “assault” weapons, drug legalization, abortion, and eminent domain (oh, does he favor eminent domain), and who invited Hillary Clinton to his wedding (one of them). You must convince yourself that Republicans will choose a man who opposes entitlement reform, the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, free trade, and elementary good manners. Above all, Republicans would be choosing someone whose policy proposals are essentially barroom blurts.

#share#While Trump floats above all normal categories of Republican politics, the other candidates are proceeding on the assumption that conservative credentials still matter. The question that came into relief at the Las Vegas debate is: What is conservatism in 2015? For Rubio, it’s (at least in part) a commitment to American world leadership. For Cruz, it sometimes seems to be more a mood (an angry one) than a philosophy.

RELATED: The Ugly Attempt to Paint Cruz and Rubio as Traitors to Their Ethnicity

Ted Cruz is angling to be the outsider — referring contemptuously to the “Washington cartel” and sidling up to Trump at every opportunity — while also claiming the mantle as the purest conservative. But he has embraced Paulite positions that overlap with liberal ones, such as his vote for the USA Freedom Act, which scaled back the capacity of the National Security Agency to do bulk data collection. He lambastes Rubio for teaming up with Charles Schumer on immigration reform (which Cruz also supported at the time, if with reservations), but he himself teamed up with Schumer on the NSA bill (which Rubio opposed unreservedly).

#related#Senator Cruz is known for his high intelligence, which is usually an asset. But it has disadvantages too. When he disparages fellow Republicans as “crazy neocon invade-every-country-on-Earth and send our kids to die in the Middle East” types, you know he didn’t choose his words carelessly. He seems satisfied to reinforce one of the caricatures the Left employs about Republicans. Similarly, when he invoked “America first” as his foreign policy during the debate, you wonder what he’s up to. If Trump (what nuclear triad?) had said it, it would be fair to assume historical ignorance. Not in Cruz’s case.

No political figure is perfectly virtuous or ideologically pure. One difference between Cruz and Rubio is that Rubio has acknowledged his apostasy on the subject of immigration, and has changed his position. Cruz, by contrast, has changed positions, but claims perfect conservative rectitude no matter which side he’s on. Successful politicians think and act strategically, but when it looks like scheming, or outright dishonesty, it leaves a bad taste.

— Mona Charen is a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center. Copyright © 2015 Creators.com

Most Popular

U.S.

This Is Why We Need Guns

‘Only the cops need guns” simply could not live forever alongside, “The cops are racist and will kill you.” And so, at long last, the two circles of the Venn Diagram have filed for an amicable divorce. In the end, the differences proved irreconcilable. At least, they proved irreconcilable without ... Read More
U.S.

This Is Why We Need Guns

‘Only the cops need guns” simply could not live forever alongside, “The cops are racist and will kill you.” And so, at long last, the two circles of the Venn Diagram have filed for an amicable divorce. In the end, the differences proved irreconcilable. At least, they proved irreconcilable without ... Read More
U.S.

The Lockdowns Are Now a Scandal

A boy in my neighborhood committed suicide a few weeks ago. It’s possible that the teen’s preexisting problems were exacerbated by the seclusion, tediousness, and helplessness of a national lockdown. Maybe not. I didn’t really know him. I do know that locals were forced to pay respects by sitting parked ... Read More
U.S.

The Lockdowns Are Now a Scandal

A boy in my neighborhood committed suicide a few weeks ago. It’s possible that the teen’s preexisting problems were exacerbated by the seclusion, tediousness, and helplessness of a national lockdown. Maybe not. I didn’t really know him. I do know that locals were forced to pay respects by sitting parked ... Read More
Elections

Good Riddance, Valerie Plame

In a week full of bad news, the defeat of Valerie Plame in a New Mexico Democratic congressional primary is easily overlooked. Had Plame won, she would have had a good chance of winning the seat, as the 3rd District is pretty heavily Democratic-leaning, scoring a D+8 in the Cook Partisan Voting Index. In ... Read More
Elections

Good Riddance, Valerie Plame

In a week full of bad news, the defeat of Valerie Plame in a New Mexico Democratic congressional primary is easily overlooked. Had Plame won, she would have had a good chance of winning the seat, as the 3rd District is pretty heavily Democratic-leaning, scoring a D+8 in the Cook Partisan Voting Index. In ... Read More
Politics & Policy

Flames from False Narratives

The indefensible killing -- captured on video -- of George Floyd, following closely after the release of video showing the killing of Ahmaud Arbery, triggered the riots, looting, and conflagrations that have engulfed scores of cities across the country. As horrific as these killings were, it's questionable ... Read More
Politics & Policy

Flames from False Narratives

The indefensible killing -- captured on video -- of George Floyd, following closely after the release of video showing the killing of Ahmaud Arbery, triggered the riots, looting, and conflagrations that have engulfed scores of cities across the country. As horrific as these killings were, it's questionable ... Read More
Science & Tech

About That Scary Hydroxychloroquine Study

Remember that scary hydroxychloroquine study in The Lancet and New England Journal of Medicine that everyone in the media was writing about a few weeks ago? It turns out that the underlying data were likely fake: A Guardian investigation can reveal the US-based company Surgisphere, whose handful of employees ... Read More
Science & Tech

About That Scary Hydroxychloroquine Study

Remember that scary hydroxychloroquine study in The Lancet and New England Journal of Medicine that everyone in the media was writing about a few weeks ago? It turns out that the underlying data were likely fake: A Guardian investigation can reveal the US-based company Surgisphere, whose handful of employees ... Read More