2016: The GOP’s Four Faces

Rubio Will Barely Lose CD 1 and 4; Trump Likely Wins All Delegates

Trump’s victory is pretty sweeping. He will clearly carry five of the state’s seven congressional districts, garnering him fifteen delegates. His statewide win gets him another 29, so he is guaranteed of winning 44 of the state’s 50 delegates.

The only questions now are CD 1 and CD 4. CD 1 is a probable Trump win, but it’s hard to say because the two largest counties, Charleston and Beaufort, are split. Rubio carried Charleston and only narrowly lost Beaufort. We know from the exit poll that Rubio beat Trump among highly educated and wealthier Republicans: if the portions of these counties excluded from CD 1 are more socio-economically downscale, then it’s possible that Rubio can eke out a victory. But the likelier outcome is a narrow Trump win.  

John Kasich will have cost Rubio those delegates if Trump does win, as these were Kasich’s best counties in the state.

CD 4 is Trey Gowdy’s seat, comprising the bulk of Greeneville and Spartanburg counties. Trump won Spartanburg by 3,600 votes over Rubio, but is only narrowly leading him in Greeneville county. Greeneville has nearly half of its vote yet to report, so Marco could steal three delegates from The Donald. But the likelier result is another narrow Trump win.

When the only question is whether he wins 50-0 or 44-6, it’s clear this is a night of celebration for Donald J. Trump.

Henry OlsenMr. Olsen is a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, an editor at UnHerd.com, and the author of The Working Class Republican: Ronald Reagan and the Return of Blue-Collar Conservatism.


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