Las Vegas — Just 72 hours after the South Carolina primary, the results of the Nevada caucuses tonight are unlikely to dramatically change the Republican race. But while there is no candidate for whom Nevada is a must-win state, Republicans here say the stakes are highest for Cruz.
It’s been a rough few days for Texas’s junior senator. His third-place finish in South Carolina knocked him off stride. Though just 1,091 votes separated him from Marco Rubio in second place, the results raised doubts about Cruz’s campaign strategy. And while Rubio sailed into Nevada with the wind at his back, mopping up endorsements from former Jeb Bush supporters, Cruz arrived to questions about what had happened in South Carolina, and about whether his claim to be the most viable alternative to Donald Trump remained credible. Then, on Monday, Cruz’s campaign plunged into further turmoil when he announced he had fired his communications director for propagating a false story about Rubio.
In short, Cruz needs a good night in Nevada, and state Republicans say that means he must at least finish close to Rubio. Though the few public polls that have been conducted in the Silver State are considered unreliable, Nevada Republicans believe Rubio and Cruz are locked in a battle for second place behind Trump. Win or lose, Cruz needs to prevent Rubio from beating him badly.
Otherwise, he risks cementing the narrative that he is fading at just the wrong time.
“I think Ted Cruz has the most to lose,” says former Nevada GOP Chairman James Smack, who is backing the Texas senator.
Cruz has argued over the past 48 hours that despite his finish in South Carolina, he is the only candidate who has proven — by winning the Iowa caucuses — that he can stop Trump. But if Rubio finishes close behind Trump and well ahead of Cruz, he’ll undermine that argument.
“I do think it hurts [Cruz] if Rubio proves he can play in the sandbox with Trump and keep it close,” says Smack.
#share#The expectations for Rubio here are higher than they are for Cruz. He has invested more resources in the state, and he has spent the past 36 hours barnstorming with a who’s who of Nevada elected officials: Lieutenant Governor Mark Hutchison, former Governor Bob List, Senator Dean Heller, Representative Mark Amodei, and Representative Cresent Hardy, to name a few. A Sunday evening rally in Las Vegas, where Pawn Stars’ Rick Harrison and Donnie Wahlberg joined the entourage, had the feel of a variety show, with every single one of the aforementioned supporters speaking before Rubio took the stage. And Rubio is pressing a hometown advantage of sorts: In his stump speeches, he regularly reminds voters that he lived in Southern Nevada as a child for several years, calling it “the place that allowed us to find the American Dream all over again.”
The higher expectations for Rubio mean Cruz could be fine if he comes in third place. But Rubio also has more to gain by doing well here. If his investment pays off, he could close in on Trump and open a significant lead on Cruz.
“If [Cruz] comes out of here without any change in momentum I think it starts to paint a pretty bad picture for him,” said Nevada GOP consultant Cory Christensen, who decided over the weekend to back Rubio.
The higher expectations for Rubio mean Cruz could be fine if he comes in third place. But Rubio also has more to gain by doing well here.
Though they are battling for second place, Cruz and Rubio are targeting different voters. Cruz’s pitch at events in Southern Nevada over the past few days has focused on libertarian voters and the very conservative wing of the party. His stump speech includes a knock on Nevada governor Brian Sandoval, who pushed through the largest tax increase in the state’s history to help fund a struggling K-12 education system.
“The people of Nevada are familiar with politicians who run for office promising to cut your taxes, only to turn around and pass a massive tax increase,” Cruz told reporters in Pahrump, repeating a similar line in his speech to voters later. It is a message that narrowly targets the most conservative Republicans in Nevada, who find Sandoval to be too moderate.
Rubio, on the other hand, has hammered home a general-election message, touting his own electability and talking about expanding the party’s appeal to new voters. As the field has gotten smaller, he said here Tuesday morning, Republicans have begun to realize that, “he wasn’t our first choice, but now he’s our best choice.”
#related#“I am the conservative in this race that can unite this party. But we won’t just unite it, we will grow this party,” he said at the Silverton Hotel and Casino, arguing that he could help the GOP reach out to the maids and bartenders working in hotels like this one come November.
Rubio will not be in Nevada on caucus night; he decamped for events in Michigan and Minnesota after an early-morning rally here. Cruz, on the other hand, will stay in town to hold a caucus-night rally, meaning he will have to face the press one way or the other.
“Our hope and expectation is to do well here,” Cruz told reporters Sunday. “We are competing hard.”
— Alexis Levinson is the senior political reporter for National Review.