For the first time in four decades, Republicans face the real possibility of a contested convention. If this came to pass, it would be an unusual circumstance, but the process of selecting a candidate at the convention would be a completely legitimate one, even if the candidate with a plurality of delegates does not win the nomination at the end of it.
The best way to defeat Donald Trump is for someone to beat him outright and earn a majority of delegates. Even with Ted Cruz’s surge in the Super Saturday contests over the weekend, though, that still seems unlikely. If Trump is definitely going to be held below 1,237, it probably means John Kasich winning Ohio or Marco Rubio winning Florida or both, in which case the field will stay fractured for the duration.
Even if he falls short of the magic number, Trump will probably enter the convention with a delegate lead and the largest share of the popular vote. That should not cow anyone. The role of the convention is to secure for the party a nominee whom most of the delegates can support. Trump’s failure to arrive with a majority of delegates would reflect the lack of a consensus for his nomination. The delegates will be fulfilling their function if they try to find a candidate most of them can support.
Provided a deal is not struck prior to the first vote, delegates would be free to negotiate toward that end following the initial vote (and a majority of delegates would work its will on votes on the rules governing the convention). What those negotiations would look like is anyone’s guess.
Trump’s backers are sure to cry foul if he does not receive the nomination, and there are, of course, prudential concerns about whether refraining from handing the nomination to the plurality choice will alienate his supporters. But that result would not mean that the nomination was stolen — merely that Trump failed to secure it under the rules. It is certainly true that some Trump supporters are deeply committed to him, but not all are. Surely, many are likely to cast their ballots for a non-Trump Republican to avoid ceding the White House to the Democrats.
For now, this is all speculation. If Trump rolls through the winner-take-all states, it will all be academic and the convention will be dramatic for another reason — for its spectacle of a badly fractured party hitching its fortunes to a badly flawed nominee who could set the conservative cause back decades.
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