American demographics are transforming. Millennials of all races will soon ascend to business and leadership positions now occupied by white Baby Boomers. Women are attending college at a higher rate than men are, climbing corporate ranks, and becoming the main breadwinners in many households. Regardless of immigration’s future, Hispanic and other minority populations will continue to grow. But interracial marriage might eventually make obsolete our current political divisions along racial lines.
So whither the Republican party? Even before the rise of Donald Trump, this has been a live question.
Donald T. Critchlow, historian of American political history and director of the Arizona State University Center for Political Thought and Leadership, addresses this question in his recent book, Future Right: Forging a New Republican Majority. Data-driven and forward-looking, this book suggests how Republicans can broaden their coalition without alienating the base.
National Review: When did you start working on this book? How did you conceive of it?
Donald T. Critchlow: I started working on the book in the summer of 2015. I was studying demographic changes. I realized that they could have political importance. Initially I conceived of the book as a book on democracy in America in the 21st century, which was going to be about the changing face of America, looking at phenomena such as intermarriage rates. Then I realized these changes have political implications for the Republican party. I concluded that the Republican party could become a majority party in the changing demographic and socioeconomic environment.
NR: You cite the Reagan era as a time when Republicans won back the majority, notably among young people. But LGBT issues didn’t have the political force then that they do now. How can Republicans overcome this new hurdle?
Critchlow: Millennials have pretty confused politics and pretty confused worldviews. If you break down their views toward business, they’re generally anti–Wall Street, and 30 percent or so declare themselves socialists. But the majority view small business favorably and support privatizing Social Security. They tend to be secular, but at the same time many say they pray daily. They tend not to like organized religion.
I think young voters can be won over to the Republicans, especially as many young women, young Hispanics, and young whites replace Baby Boomers in top business positions.
Millennials overwhelmingly support gay marriage, but on the abortion issue, the majority tend to be pro-life. Their No. 1 concern, as for most voters, is the economy, including job creation. I think young voters can be won over to the Republicans, especially as many young women, young Hispanics, and young whites replace Baby Boomers in top business positions.
There’s a sizable number of Millennials who are Evangelicals as well; they tend to be more anti–gay marriage even than older Evangelicals are. Many of the Millennials who are married and have children have become Evangelical Christians, and many of them have returned to the Catholic Church or to the Jewish faith. I think conservatives and Republicans can be optimistic about this even though this is a trying election for Republicans.
NR: When advising Republicans on how to reach more women, you urge them to play to the big advances women have made in business, politics, education, and leadership. Do you think Republicans should be concerned about the ways some of these new realities might affect men and children?
Critchlow: I think a major concern for all Americans is the breakdown of the family. We have study after study showing the ill effects of single-parent families. This is most pronounced among lower-income groups. There needs to be an outreach, not just by Republicans but by church groups and conservative-minded community groups, to address these very serious problems. It’s clear that religion plays an important role in moving these families out of poverty and drug addiction and helping their children. Children do better when families attend church regularly: They have higher graduation rates, higher rates of entry into college, and higher college GPAs.
As professional women advance economically, I think it’s going to strain the family, but I think having a good cultural environment overcomes many of the difficulties of two parents working. As we undergo this economic transformation, we must maintain cultural values. That’s the trick that conservatives and Republicans are facing. We know that culture does matter; it affects economics, and it affects voting patterns as well. Republicans need to continue to make arguments for the importance of culture and values. They can do so through educational reform, in K–12 promoting school choice, and in college.
NR: In your section on Baby Boomers, you devote considerable space to discussing Social Security and Medicare. Their insolvency looms, but Republican Boomers don’t want to reform them. How can Republicans pursue reform without losing crucial Boomer votes?
Critchlow: This is really problematic. In the end, reality is going to sink in as these systems become increasingly unaffordable. A Republican running on entitlement reform gets into trouble with white Baby Boomers as well as minorities. I’m really dismayed that among other things, Donald Trump has said that he’s not going to touch Social Security. He suggested, at one point, having a single-payer program, which will necessitate going through entitlement programs, and already Medicare is collapsing. Medicare benefits large hospitals and corporate conglomerates. Rural health is given the short end of the stick.
In the end, rising health-care costs and the collapse of Medicare and Social Security are going to have to be addressed one way or another. Social Security must be privatized for younger people. Some Republican leaders, such as Paul Ryan, have offered plans for health-care reform. The Republican party needs to offer a program of reform to Republican voters.
NR: Trump’s emphasis on trade protectionism has highlighted the desire of some in the working class to return manufacturing jobs to the United States. That seems to be a regressive solution in our increasingly knowledge-based economy. What jobs are there for non-college-educated workers? How can Republicans address their concerns without proposing detrimental protectionist policies?
Critchlow: I think this is a major question facing the nation. Republicans first of all have to discuss education: better public schools, charter schools, more opportunities for poorer people to send their kids to safe schools that are going to educate their children. We are going to have to address the larger question of a transforming economy in the broader political environment.
In the meantime, a lot of demagogic language will attack trade. The issue of trade isn’t just about job loss. It’s a reflection of the anti-political sentiment we see now — that the political class isn’t representing the people and that the system is corrupt. In the long run, the transformation of the economy is going to be a deeper problem that doesn’t allow easy solutions, but in the end, job growth benefits all people, particularly small business. Even though we’re losing manufacturing jobs, small business creates more jobs. The Republican party needs to support measures that help small business grow, and that means opposing a lot of regulation.
NR: Trump supporters also fear losing their jobs and their culture to immigrants, both legal and illegal. How can Republicans appeal to Hispanics while addressing illegal immigration? How can they win minority immigrants without alienating natives who resent them?
Critchlow: The Republican party needs a message of inclusion and reform. It needs to offer programs and policies to create jobs, fix health care, and protect the nation. These are the issues that Hispanics, like all Americans, are most concerned with. There’s a patriotism and a strong entrepreneurial ethos among Hispanics, and they tend to be what the Republicans would call “value voters.” That is, they’re concerned about social issues. They tend to be mostly Catholic. About 6 percent of Hispanics are Pentecostal. They tend to be anti-abortion and aren’t big on the LGBT agenda. An appeal to them is that Republicans want to advance them economically and socially. It was exactly the argument that George W. Bush made, and in his second reelection campaign, he won over 40 percent of Hispanic voters. We see in other states where Republicans ran as a party of inclusion that they did quite well with Hispanic voters. Otherwise, they’ll be doomed to be a minority party.
We need to protect our borders and have immigration reform. We need an acceptable path to legal status for the 11.5 million illegals in the country. Many included in that number also are children and even grandchildren of Hispanics who crossed the border. It’s not as if Hispanic Americans aren’t concerned about illegal immigration, but when you start attacking like Donald Trump has, it alienates them because it looks like a racial attack. It brings up immigration, which hasn’t been a main voter concern, as a mobilizing instrument for the Democrats.
Hillary is way up in Arizona and Nevada. Democratic party strategists have registered over 800,000 new Hispanic voters in California. They’re having the same mobilization in other states. Once young Hispanics vote Democratic, they tend to stay Democrats. As I explain in the book, about 40 percent of Hispanics prior to 2016 were registered as independents even though they leaned Democratic. But if they get mobilized by the Democrats, there’s great potential that they’ll be long-term Democrats, ensuring that Republicans will be a minority party. The presumptive nominee, Trump, must win over Hispanics, women, and the youth. At this point, his message is alienating these groups. He has high negatives among all three.
NR: Will a Trump nomination destroy the GOP?
Critchlow: I think that’s an exaggeration. The Republican party will still exist. After Barry Goldwater lost, they had down-ticket losses, but then they rebuilt. The Republican party is going to have to rebuild itself again as it did in 1964. Unfortunately, it then unified around Richard Nixon, who proved disastrous, but he was able to win in 1968. One of the great things the Republican party has going for it is that the liberal agenda tends to fail, as it did in ’68 after Lyndon B. Johnson won in a landslide.
One of the great things the Republican party has going for it is that the liberal agenda tends to fail, as it did in ’68 after Lyndon B. Johnson won in a landslide.
One of the problems with great victories is that the party in power often suffers from hubris, so it overreaches. Obama overreached with Obamacare. It’s possible that Trump can pivot and put together a general campaign and great financial network, bringing serious policy advisers around him. But if he loses, as it appears he will, he’ll take many Republicans down with him.
But this country is facing a grave debt and entitlement problem and international threats, and those problems can’t be wished away, and as I said, liberal policies tend to fail. The Republican party has been around for more than 100 years, and it’s not going to go away. Parties have their ups and downs. I don’t think we’re going the way of the Whig party in the long term.
NR: Imperfect as it is, the Republican party has been a platform for freedom and limited government. How do you make those things attractive to those who weren’t taught to appreciate them?
Critchlow: I think here we get back to educational reform. The appeal of limited government and lowering taxes can be hollow to many people. Serious civic education is absolutely important, and it needs to be at the core of educational reform. The 2016 election could present a setback, but Republicans and conservatives need to play the long game. K–12 reform and college reform will be a huge factor. Conservatives have spent, since the 1980s, millions of dollars setting up reading groups, internship programs, leadership seminars, and research centers at universities, but clearly higher education has shifted to the left. Reforming colleges means exercising control of faculty hires and offering a curriculum that will appeal to students. But right now the Left has a lock on the academic job market.
I think we’re entering a new world of politics that’s reflecting a demographic revolution. There needs to be an adjustment by the Republican party to this new world. I think we should expect a lot of volatility in American and world politics in the coming years. But if the Republican party can show that it’s the party of principled reform and inclusion, and if it has leaders who can communicate this, then it can become the majority party.