Estonia, Gingrich, orange juice, redlines, and more
Editor’s Note: Jay Nordlinger spent the week of September 12 in the Baltic states — or rather, in two of them, Latvia and Estonia. A piece by him appears in the current issue of National Review magazine: about the Baltics, Russia, NATO, and America, particularly in light of our presidential campaign. This journal supplements the piece, and concerns matters weighty and light. Here are links to previous parts: I, II, III, IV, V, VI, and VII.
A friend of mine says to me, “Tallinn is to Riga as Prague is to Budapest.” This means, I believe, that the Estonian capital, Tallinn, is smaller and perhaps more jewel-like than the Latvian capital, Riga. In any case, both are wonderful (like Prague and Budapest).
‐It’s a pleasure to emerge from your door in Tallinn into a sun-drenched morning. That sun seems very low, too. The entire sky is low. And the sun is brief. By early afternoon or so, the sky is overcast. This will prove true every day I’m here.
‐As in Riga, the streets in Old Town, Tallinn, are made of bricks and stones. These bricks and stones seem ancient (and probably are). At times, it is not easy to walk on them. And they must be hell on rollies (i.e., luggage that you roll). In fact, you’d have to pick your rolly up, I believe.
‐What did Newt Gingrich say? “Estonia is in the suburbs of St. Petersburg.” And “I’m not sure I would risk nuclear war over some place which is the suburbs of St. Petersburg.”
Everyone in Estonia heard that, of course. This was surprising to them — not to say shocking — because Gingrich had been such a big booster of NATO, and its eastward expansion.
Also, there were the words “some place.”
And then this: Russians such as Putin like to think of Estonia as a St. Petersburg suburb. But Estonians don’t. They think of their country as a country: free, independent, and sovereign. And now a former speaker of the U.S. House, and a surrogate for a presidential nominee, was saying …
Everyone in this country heard Trump, too. He said that the United States would not come to the aid of NATO allies unless they “paid.”
I should repeat what I said earlier in this journal: At its summit in 2014, NATO set a goal on defense spending. Every member would spend at least 2 percent of GDP on defense by 2024. At present, five countries already do, one of which is Estonia. (The other two Baltic countries will meet the threshold by 2018.)
After Trump and Gingrich made their remarks, the Estonian president, Toomas Hendrik Ilves, took to Twitter. He said that his country was spending 2 percent. And had fought in Afghanistan, in accordance with Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
In The Atlantic, Jeffrey Goldberg wrote that Ilves had tweeted “in a cold panic.” Ilves answered, “Estonians don’t do ‘in a cold panic’. Phlegmatic, slow, non-reactive, yes. Panic, no.”
‐By the way, would you like to know what “ilves” means? It means lynx. Kind of a neat name.
‐Walking around Tallinn, I have the sense of being on the front lines. I also have this thought, I swear, in just these words: “Putin could swallow this place like a chocolate.”
But then there is deterrence. Throwing up a deterrence, making invasion not worth the bother to the Kremlin.
‐I say to Veiko Lukmann, “Do you feel like you’re on the front lines?” He says, “I felt less on the front lines before Ukraine happened. Now I can relate to that idea more, to put it mildly.”
Lukmann is an Estonian politico and international-affairs expert. He has an interesting family story to tell, as nearly all Balts do, I find. To Siberia and back and so on.
We meet in a restaurant called Pööbel, which means “People.” As in common people. The masses. The name is meant tongue in cheek. It is supposed to contrast with the fancier places in Tallinn. Anyway, Pööbel is quite good.
‐Do you remember what I said about the Finnish language? Those double letters and dots? So it is with Estonian.
‐NATO jets fly over Tallinn, says Lukmann, and this “concentrates your mind.” I ask him, “Is it frightening or reassuring?” “I would say reassuring,” he answers.
Also, American troops are here. “Your boots are on the ground,” Lukmann tells me.
‐Every day, the Baltics, like many other places, are bombarded by Kremlin propaganda. A lot of it comes from RT, the Kremlin’s TV network. They tell people that NATO is fascist, provocative, and belligerent. They say that NATO economies are failing.
In other words, the Kremlin alleges that what is true of Russia is true of NATO.
Also, they say that ethnic Russians in the Baltic states are being oppressed. This is a staple of Kremlin propaganda. A perpetual creation and stoking of grievances.
Lukmann says that Balts, of all stripes, are largely immune to Moscow’s propaganda. They have lived with it for so long. You are born with a skepticism toward it.
‐Russophones, or ethnic Russians, constitute about 25 percent of the Estonian population. As in Latvia, so in this country: Many are completely integrated. A few are unreconciled, which is to say, Soviet in their mindset. Some are sort of in limbo.
Estonia has compulsory military service. This includes Russophone Estonians, of course, and they serve as officers and the whole nine yards.
The Estonian foreign minister is Russian — an ethnic Russian. Actually, she has just resigned, to run for president.
‐Estonians felt Putin’s wrath in 2007, when their government relocated a Soviet war memorial. (It is the conceit of Moscow that Stalin “liberated” the Baltics.) Putin retaliated by launching cyberattacks on Estonia, paralyzing the country.
Then came 2014 — and Putin’s moves in, and on, Ukraine. This rattled Estonians, along with other Balts (and Belarusians and others).
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‐I ask Veiko Lukmann, “Is there anxiety in this country?” He answers this way: “Inside people, there is a certain tension. An awareness of what is going on, or what may go on. We’re hoping to have the best future possible. But there is tension. It is not a relaxed state of mind.”
‐Veiko has been to America — to two cities, in particular. His work took him there. Those cities are Washington, D.C., and Omaha, Neb. He was a bit disappointed in D.C., for this reason: It looked and felt European to him. (I remark to Veiko that it was, after all, designed by a Parisian, L’Enfant.) Omaha, on the other hand, met expectations: It was all-American, like in the movies. The streets looked right.
And in the diners, they keep refilling your coffee. Whether you ask them to or not. In Europe, you pay cup by cup. In America, it just flows …
‐Here in Tallinn, I have a kind of ice cream I’ve never had before: sea buckthorn. It’s a little … I don’t know, fishy. A little tart.
‐Want to know something interesting? (Well, it’s interesting to me.) At a breakfast buffet, the juices are labeled. And the first syllables of the Estonian word for “orange” are “apel.” (The full word is “apelsin.”) This is slightly disorienting …
(Not long ago, I spent a fair amount of time in a country whose apple is “Apfel.”)
‐I speak to a very high national-security official of the Estonian government. I ask him about the threat from Russia. The reliability of NATO (meaning, let’s face it, the United States). Etc. You know: “the situation.” I will paraphrase what he says:
“When people ask me if I sleep calmly or not, I tell them I sleep like a baby. Never before in Estonia’s history has our security been guaranteed at the level it is now. That said, I have a concern: Our neighbor, Russia, has decided to take a different path when it comes to the overall security environment in Europe.”
What he means is, the path of harassment and disruption.
“The threat to us is not high — as long as NATO functions, as long as NATO’s deterrence capability in the region is working correctly, and as long as no one misreads it.”
By this last bit, I think he means, as long as Putin does not feel unduly provoked.
‐You will recall something I mentioned earlier in this journal: When President Obama reneged on his “redline” in Syria, people in the Baltics felt a jolt. If the U.S. caved on that, what else could the U.S. cave on?
Again, I will paraphrase the national-security official:
“Let’s put it this way: I would not compare a treaty relationship [NATO] to a political declaration, even when this political declaration comes from the U.S. president. But certainly, we Estonians, along with Latvians and others, were the champions of reading between the lines, during the Soviet era. In those days, people were very keen to find hints of something they either desired to see or were afraid of seeing, whenever they looked at statements or developments.
“We still have this ability — and sometimes this ability may be to our detriment. We read too much into things.
“And yet: The Syrian redline statement, and its crossing, made some people worried, and understandably. It affected the way some people perceive the United States, as the great freedom-defending country.”
‐A blunt question: Would NATO come to the Baltics’ defense? Yes. “I personally have no doubt.” But a caveat: People in Washington have to be reminded, or taught, what is at stake. Why NATO, including its eastern flank, is important for America, as well as everyone else.
‐Same question as to Veiko Lukmann: Is there anxiety in the Estonian air, Estonian breasts? “There has been a great deal of anxiety, certainly since Donbass and Crimea, but more generally speaking, the background anxiety has never left us. We have been occupied, reoccupied, annexed, by so many countries throughout our history. We are fed up by that. We really want to live our own life, and we cherish that independent life.”
‐I see a plaque outside a government building. A list of names. I can’t make out what it is. Later, I learn.
These are prime ministers killed in the Soviet terror, and other government ministers who were also killed. In the parliament courtyard, there is another list for legislators, about five times longer.
‐The Estonian parliament is called the Riigikogu. It (the building) is pink. Or is it more like salmon? More like the color of the Financial Times or the New York Observer? In any case, a pink parliament need not be a soft one. And pink is not pinko, right?
Anyway, I think we’ll wrap up tomorrow. Thanks much, dear readers.