After Ireland’s abortion referendum, the British territory may be the last best hope for the movement to reverse a troubling European trend.
The result of Ireland’s referendum on abortion was a significant setback for the global pro-life movement, all the more so because the country was once a bastion of Catholic moral values. Naturally, the question now becomes where the pro-life movement goes from here.
Currently, Northern Ireland is one of only a few remaining places in Western Europe with laws safeguarding the right to life of the unborn. In the wake of Ireland’s referendum, British prime minister Theresa May has been pressured to push for a liberalization of those laws. The short-term aim of pro-lifers should be to prevent that from happening.
Legalizing abortion in Northern Ireland would be politically imprudent and almost impossible for May. The issue of abortion is devolved to the Northern Ireland Assembly, and as recently as 2016 the Assembly voted 59 to 40 against legalizing the procedure in cases of fetal abnormality. Northern Ireland’s legislature is, however, currently mired in a stand-off between the pro-union Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and Sinn Fein, the leading nationalist party. The Assembly has been suspended since March 2017, and some view this as an opening to legalize abortion in the territory.
Nevertheless, Parliament is unlikely to impose abortion on Northern Ireland for two reasons.
First, May cannot afford to anger the DUP. Since the Conservatives lost their majority in the 2017 general elections, May has had to rely on the DUP for crucial votes on matters such as the budget and withdrawal from the European Union. Without the DUP’s votes, May’s government could collapse, thereby opening the door to a Labour government led by Jeremy Corbyn — something all Conservatives would like to avoid.
A successful pro-life campaign in Northern Ireland could stem the tide of the pro-choice movement and perhaps begin to reverse the continent-wide trend toward relaxed abortion laws.
Second, Westminster is trying to ensure public services run smoothly in Northern Ireland without governing the country directly. Despite the suspension of Northern Ireland’s legislature, Parliament is reluctant to impose direct rule because that would annul the Good Friday Agreement, the foundation of the peace process that has ensured disagreements between Northern Irish unionists and republicans are solved by constructive debates rather than bullets for the last two decades. Furthermore, peace is already at risk of being strained by a fight between British and E.U. Brexit negotiators over the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. It would be unwise, therefore, for May to impose anything resembling direct rule by legalizing abortion.
So it is unlikely that abortion will be legalized in Northern Ireland in the immediate future. But what happens when the territory’s assembly is no longer suspended?
Undoubtedly, politicians from the U.K. and Ireland will pressure the Assembly to hold a referendum on abortion. In the past, the DUP could have easily vetoed efforts to hold a referendum through a petition of concern. If invoked, this mechanism mandates that proposed laws garner the support of 60 percent of the legislature, with support from at least 40 percent of both unionist and nationalist legislators. After losing ten seats in the 2017 Assembly elections, however, the DUP no longer has the 30 members necessary to trigger a petition of concern unilaterally. It is thus more likely than in recent years that a referendum on abortion could take place in Northern Ireland.
In the Republic of Ireland, the Catholic Church was the most significant opponent of the referendum. In Northern Ireland, the Catholic Church is joined by the DUP and the Presbyterian Church as the key players in the pro-life movement. As elsewhere in the United Kingdom, Christianity’s influence is declining in Northern Ireland. Nevertheless, relative to the rest of the U.K., a significantly higher percentage of Northern Irish individuals identify as Christian and regularly attend church.
For the pro-life movement to have a chance at winning a referendum in Northern Ireland, it must begin taking steps to coordinate a campaign that brings together Protestant and Catholic communities. This will require overcoming still-unsettled sectarian strife that has long plagued the country. Despite improvements in the relationship between Protestants and Catholics, divisions remain, highlighted starkly by Protestant celebrations every July of the overthrow of the Catholic King James II in the Glorious Revolution of 1688. These festivities typically end with violence and law-enforcement officers separating the communities.
Continued ecumenical dialogue will prove vital to pro-life efforts in Northern Ireland. It is also essential that pro-life activists highlight the common concern for the dignity of every human life held by Catholics and Protestants alike. A successful pro-life campaign in Northern Ireland could stem the tide of the pro-choice movement and perhaps begin to reverse the continent-wide trend toward relaxed abortion laws.
— Jeff Cimmino is a student at Georgetown University in Washington D.C. and a former intern at National Review. James Bundy is a student at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland, the national chairmen of Conservative Future Scotland, and the former chairman of the St. Andrews Conservative and Unionist Association.