Yesterday morning, Jim Geraghty joined Rich Lowry on the third NRPLUS conference call. The pair discussed all things midterms, including the blue wave’s downgrade to a blue splash, the GOP’s chances in the House and Senate, and how the Kavanaugh news has impacted voters. Jim also shared some insights from some of his sources working elections across the country.
Jim started the call by pointing out that a few months ago, Republicans weren’t aggressively interested in the midterms because of expectations that it would be a “blue wave.” After the Kavanaugh circus, however, Republicans have seen what it looks like when Democrats are in power, and they don’t like it.
Next, Rich and Jim went over the contentious Senate elections. Jim said that he’s comfortable saying Texas is a lock and explained that Beto-mania is nothing new for Texas. Democrats are always trying to find a “great Southern hope” to help carry a solid-D state in a presidential race. Tennessee isn’t a done deal but Marsha Blackburn’s campaign “looks good,” and Heidi Heitkamp has all but lost North Dakota.
The House is more complicated, due in part to how arduous it is to analyze every race in depth, but Jim and Rich agreed that the bellwether for this election is Barbara Comstock. A Republican in a Virginia suburb of D.C., Comstock is a match for the district but never wins in a landslide. If she holds her seat, there’s a chance the GOP will hold the House. After Rich asked about what would happen if the House elections were held tomorrow, Jim said that Democrats would win, but only have something like a five-seat majority.
Next, Jim and Rich turned to questions from users, who were submitting via the Facebook group, the call-in system, and email. Paul asked Jim what the Left would do if the GOP held the House and Senate, and Jim’s response? “You’ll see an absolutely apoplectic response.” Jim said that Democrats will offer the argument that every American governmental institution is illegitimate: The House because of gerrymandering, the Senate because it doesn’t reflect population, and the White House because Trump didn’t win the popular vote.
Jim closed by pointing out that although there’s much to be hopeful about this November, the real pain for Republicans will be in the governorships. Polling hasn’t looked great for Scott Walker in Wisconsin or Mike DeWine in Ohio, and Iowa and Michigan might flip back to blue. Republicans will need to revisit those states and figure out why their advantage there, which they enjoyed for many years, has disappeared.
If you missed the call, check out the audio above, and stay tuned for news about our next call.