How Often Is One State Decisive in the Electoral College?

Republican nominee Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Johnstown, Pa., October 21, 2016. (Jonathan Ernst/Reuters)
It happens more often than you might think — and sometimes the state is a close one.

NRPLUS MEMBER ARTICLE T he 2020 presidential election could be decided by one state, most likely Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. How often has that happened? Let’s take a walk through the history of presidential elections.

In 58 presidential elections since 1788, 19 — almost a third — have been close enough that the outcome would have been different if at least one key state had gone the other way. In nine of those 19, it was only one state that was big enough to make the difference. Some of those single states were very close, but others weren’t. For example, the only state in Donald Trump’s

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