Enough Already with the IHME COVID-19 Model

Scientists work in a lab testing coronavirus samples at New York City’s health department during the coronavirus outbreak in New York City, April 23, 2020. (Brendan McDermid/Reuters)
After repeated failures, it has now been completely revamped. It can’t be trusted at such a critical time in the coronavirus pandemic.

NRPLUS MEMBER ARTICLE I have precisely zero envy for anyone trying to predict where the COVID-19 pandemic is headed. There’s a ton we don’t know about how quickly the virus spreads under different conditions, what new treatments will appear, how policy will change in the future, and how well the public will practice social distancing during the summer regardless of policy. Even the world’s top epidemiologists cannot be expected to give us more than educated guesses that are based on reasonable, clearly explained assumptions — and that improve as new information comes in.

Some of those guesses can be quite valuable even as they’re

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