Presidential Incumbency Isn’t Really That Valuable

President Donald Trump attends a campaign kick-off rally at the Amway Center in Orlando, Fla., June 18, 2019. (Carlo Allegri/Reuters)
Incumbent presidents’ record when running for reelection is good but not great.

NRPLUS MEMBER ARTICLE T he volatile nature of 2020 — in which a pandemic and civil unrest have already rendered even the presidential impeachment a distant memory — makes it impossible to predict much about the November election with certainty. We know that Donald Trump is in trouble: Joe Biden has built a strong position in the polls, and the booming economy that was supposed to be the centerpiece of Trump’s reelection campaign is now a distant memory. But we’re still months from knowing how much that really tells us about the fall.

This much is certain: Against Biden’s early lead, Trump has the advantage


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