It’s a high-stakes evening in a high-stakes election, and the winner could be punching his ticket to the White House.
It’s a high-stakes evening in a high-stakes election, and the winner could be punching his ticket to the White House.
I t’s fight night in America. At 9 p.m. this evening, Donald Trump and Joe Biden will participate in a 90-minute clash. The moderator will be the 2016 debates’ best: Fox News’s Chris Wallace. Biden has called it a day before noon eleven times since September 1 by one count, and his campaign has repeatedly claimed that he has been spending that idle time on debate prep, so presumably, he should be ready. Trump has taken the opposite approach, campaigning hard but reportedly putting very little focus on debate prep. Wallace has selected the following topics: The integrity of the election, race and violence in our cities, the economy, COVID-19, the Supreme Court, and the Trump and Biden records. Who has the advantage going into each leg of the evening?
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The Integrity of the Election
In one of the defining moments of the 2016 debates, Wallace asked Trump if he would concede on election night if he lost. Trump responded, “I’ll tell you at the time. I’ll keep you in suspense.” It was a shocking moment, and one that was repeated recently when Trump refused to commit to overseeing a peaceful transfer of power just last week. Biden has vulnerabilities and Trump has material that could be helpful if he stays disciplined. The president was not found guilty of colluding with the Russians and the Mueller probe turned out to be a drain on the country’s resources and psyche. If he can say, “Of course I will accept the ultimate election results, though they may not be obvious on November 4” before pivoting to Mueller and the importance of minimizing fraud, he may be able to limit the damage. But he’s given Biden far too much to work with.
ADVANTAGE BIDEN
Race and Violence in Our Cities
This will be a tricky topic for both candidates. Biden will try to keep the focus on the race component. He coasted to the Democratic nomination on the strength of his support from black voters. He’ll express solidarity with Black Lives Matter, condemn violence, and probably mention his old boss. But Biden is also running behind Hillary Clinton with Hispanic voters, so he’d be wise to work them into the conversation. Trump will want to pivot to the riots. If he can pay more than lip service to race relations before reciting a litany of statistics and stories about how violence in our cities has harmed communities and how Democrats around the country have failed those communities, he could be successful in this section, but that’s a tall order. Who comes away looking better will depend upon whether race or violence dominates the discussion.
JUMP BALL
The Economy
Prior to coronavirus, the economy was going to be the centerpiece of the Trump campaign. Unemployment in January was at 3.6 percent, down from 4 percent the previous year — even though much of that year was spent fretting over the possibility of a coming recession — and from 4.8 percent in January 2017, when Trump took office. As recently as this February, 59 percent of Americans said they were financially better off than a year ago and three quarters felt confident they would be better off a year later. Though the pandemic has devastated the economy, voters still trust Trump more on the economy than they do Biden. Moreover, because Biden is running a character-based rather than an issue-oriented campaign, his economic agenda is somewhat unknown. That makes it easier for Trump to define it.
ADVANTAGE TRUMP
COVID-19
At first glance this would appear to be Trump’s weakest area going into the evening, and it very well may prove to be just that. Over 200,000 Americans are dead, and the tapes of Trump telling Bob Woodward how bad things were going to get while he downplayed the need for masks and other measures publicly are damning. There has also been the odd Trump–Fauci pseudo-spat — fueled largely by the media — that has made the administration look disorganized. However, he has also had underreported successes that he can point to and Biden, while better rhetorically on the issue, has not made explicit exactly what he would do differently from a policy standpoint other than continuing to lock down parts of the country. Still, it’s his section to lose because of the ghastly death toll and Trump’s clumsy use of the bully pulpit.
ADVANTAGE BIDEN
The Supreme Court
As in 2016, a justice’s death has catapulted the Supreme Court into the upper echelon of voting issues. On Saturday, Trump nominated the Seventh Circuit’s Amy Coney Barrett to replace Ginsburg in a picturesque Rose Garden ceremony. Barrett is an incredibly impressive nominee and American who, in all likelihood, will be confirmed by the end of October. Trump can cite the attacks on Barrett’s religion and even her adopted children and remind conservatives what Democrats did to Brett Kavanaugh. He can also remind voters what Biden did to Robert Bork and Clarence Thomas as chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee. It will galvanize Trump’s base and may even bring home some soft Republican voters. Biden will say that Barrett will gut the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and might mention “reproductive rights” as well. The ACA is popular and makes for a good talking point, but he’d be unwise to bring abortion up, as Trump has proven willing to describe in detail the horror of the procedure. Republicans are more easily motivated by the Court and Barrett is an inspiring figure, so this should be a slam dunk for the president.
ADVANTAGE TRUMP
The Trump and Biden Records
This is the most amorphous topic of the evening, and, as a result, the most difficult to analyze ahead of time. I tend to think it will advantage Trump, who won in 2016 on the strength of his platform, not his personality. Biden is running a character campaign for a reason: His political career has not been one of accomplishment. Trump can say he’s done more in four years than Biden has done in 40 and make an affirmatively better case on issues such as taxes, the Middle East, China, and abortion. But again, who knows exactly what Wallace will ask in this portion of the debate.
ADVANTAGE TRUMP
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The first debate tends to be the most-watched — 2016’s pulled in 84 million viewers. That means tonight is particularly important for Trump, who is trailing Biden in most swing states as well as nationally. He would appear to have the advantage in more categories, but also to have more glaring disadvantages in those that Biden would be expected to win. Biden, on the other hand, just needs to hold the line with voters in the swing states. But it’s an open question whether he’ll be able to remain coherent for an hour and a half. It’s a high-stakes evening in a high-stakes election, and the winner could be punching his ticket to the White House.