Another Pollster Sees a Trump Win

President Donald Trump speaks during the second presidential campaign debate in Nashville, Tenn., October 22, 2020. (Morry Gash/Pool via Reuters)
The president will carry Pennsylvania and prevail in the election, according to Jim Lee of Susquehanna Polling and Research.

NRPLUS MEMBER ARTICLE T he Trafalgar Group’s Robert Cahaly is an outlier among pollsters in that he thinks President Trump will carry Michigan, Pennsylvania, or both, and hence be reelected with roughly 280 electoral votes. (I explained his thinking here.) Last week another pollster, Jim Lee of Susquehanna Polling and Research, echoed some of Cahaly’s points about shy Trump voters being missed by pollsters. “There is definitely a submerged Trump vote,” Lee said. Asked for a prediction, he hedged a little but then predicted a Trump win: “I can’t call it. If the turnout is going to be what I think, Trump wins it.”

Lee

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