How COVID Could Become a Vulnerability for Biden in the Campaign’s Home Stretch

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden speaks about his plan to beat COVID-19 in Wilmington, Del., October 23, 2020. (Kevin Lamarque/Reuters)
Conventional wisdom says the virus is a bigger problem for Trump. But if Biden promises more lockdowns, economically struggling voters could flee.

NRPLUS MEMBER ARTICLE O pinions vary significantly over what will happen in Tuesday’s election, and the surprise of 2016 is a big reason why. In normal circumstances, the relative stability of the polls and the race’s trajectory might make this election easier to predict. Yet while most looking at the polls and betting odds would probably rather be Biden than Trump in this final week of the campaign, there is plenty of reason to at least maintain some humility, regardless of which side you believe will prevail.

With that in mind, last Thursday night’s debate made me think of something the historian Niall Ferguson said

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