The Pollster Who Thinks Trump Is Ahead

President Donald Trump at a campaign rally at Orlando Sanford International Airport in Sanford, Fla., October 12, 2020. (Jonathan Ernst/Reuters)
The upstart Trafalgar Group doesn’t see 2020 the same way everyone else does.

NRPLUS MEMBER ARTICLE T he polling aggregator on the website RealClearPolitics shows the margin in polls led by Joe Biden in a blue font and the ones led by Donald Trump in red. For a while, the battleground states have tended to be uniformly blue, except for polls conducted by the Trafalgar Group.

If you are a firm believer only in polling averages, this isn’t particularly meaningful, but if you are familiar with Trafalgar’s successes in 2016, when (unlike other pollsters) it had Trump leading in Michigan and Pennsylvania and, in 2018, Ron DeSantis winning his gubernatorial race, it is notable. Regardless, it’s worth knowing

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