He is an entertainer, and the act is not new anymore.
He is an entertainer, and the act is not new anymore.
T here were always going to be challenges for Donald Trump’s reelection. The first is that he wouldn’t be running against Hillary Clinton, who managed to be extremely unpopular but threatening enough to unify many Republicans underneath Trump’s banner. The second is that his 2016 campaign overpromised in a way that made it impossible for him to deliver. He vowed to get rid of Obamacare, and “take care of everybody;” to increase spending, and get rid of the national debt; to bring the troops home, and end terrorism. He’d build a wall, and “Mexico would pay for it.” His only attempt at playing both sides of the issue this time is his emphasis on “law and order” when talking about rioters, but also attacking Biden’s crime bill and emphasizing his own attempts at criminal-justice reform.
Running on a four-year record is obviously different. And what we’ve found is that Trump’s need to work with existing Republicans in Congress and in his administration has made his administration more like that of a replacement-level Republican: tax cuts, conservative judges, and a foreign policy of confrontation with Iran. The populist Trump is almost gone. This is also a serious problem because it deprives him of the chance to run partly against his own party, which surely helped him win those crossover Obama-Trump voters. In 2016, a vote for Trump was not just a vote against Hillary Clinton, but a vote for a different Republican Party.
But, one of the most underrated challenges for Trump is that he is an entertainer, and the act is not new anymore. There’s a lack of vitality to the Trump campaign, which isn’t great when his campaign is claiming that Joe Biden has one foot in the grave. He’s lost the propulsive momentum of upending expectations at every turn. We’re more than five years removed from his trip down the escalator. And experienced television guys such as Trump know that you need a refresh, but he hasn’t given us one.
What we have instead is a weird rerun. Sleepy Joe in the place of Crooked Hillary. But the same exact plot twist is being tried again. Instead of Anthony Weiner, Hunter Biden is in the role of the indiscreet and avaricious horn dog whose computer is leading to an email scandal in the final weeks of the campaign.
Without the pitch-perfect casting of the first season — a Bush and a Clinton as antagonists — Trump has trouble relaying to the audience what his role in the drama is. Has any debate line in 2020 hit as hard as that moment four years ago when he turned on Hillary Clinton’s remark about how it’s good that he’s not in charge of the law and snapped back, “Because you’d be in jail.”
Like the comic relief inserted into a struggling sitcom, Trump used to have catchphrases that were anticipated and repeated eagerly by the audience. “And Mexico will pay for it.” And chants, “Lock her up.” What is his line for this year?
Trump has trouble getting anything positive out of his “norm-breaking.” And, because he is president, his words carry a different weight. 2016 Trump could question any aspect of the bipartisan consensus and probably get some juice out of it. He was a bold truth-teller, or the fool who is wiser than the wise men. But 2020 Trump is also President Trump. When the president floats the suggestion on Twitter of delaying the election, he comes across to different audiences as alternately scared, out of control, or vaguely menacing.
The president’s reelection agenda is about doing the first term over again, restoring the economy that was destroyed by the virus. Even the image of Amy Coney Barrett being sworn in on a balcony by Justice Clarence Thomas had a kind of valedictory note in it. It was the kind of moment that a struggling show ends its season on when the producers aren’t sure about getting renewed.
Sometimes you even get the sense that his opponents and antagonists have bought into the conceit of Trump’s drama. They have trouble imagining that an election will happen and the spell will be broken. They are hoping for a dramatic confrontation in the finale. They want Biden to ride in with the U.S. military and all the decent Republicans and crowbar Trump off the Resolute desk. They almost long for a last-minute gritty reboot, when Trump energetically tries to root out the Deep State that undermined him.
I think the truth of the matter is more boring, even if less satisfying. Donald Trump the politician has no second act. Even if he’s reelected.