Lasting lessons from southeast Wisconsin show the path forward for Republicans in suburban America.
Lasting lessons from southeast Wisconsin show the path forward for Republicans in suburban America, even in an unpredictable election.
Y ou can see the mayhem of the political moment in Wauwatosa, where Bonnie Lee is campaigning for the state assembly. Shattered glass of homes and storefronts is scattered in the streets. Demonstrations have rocked the community after the Milwaukee County district attorney declined to prosecute a police officer who shot a man whom authorities say was armed. Night after night this month, crowds attacked cop cars, looted, and broke windows in neighborhoods across the community.
“They were sweeping up the glass as I was talking to them,” Lee, a Republican and director of outreach ministry at Northwest Baptist Church, says in a recent phone interview of the residents she hopes to represent. “Our precious Wauwatosa has gone down this path that we’ve seen in other large cities.”
The result has been a once-quiet community bearing the full burden of our charged political times — racial unrest, COVID-19, and the economic downturn that came with it — but the weight of the moment doesn’t end there. Wauwatosa is also one of numerous communities in southeast Wisconsin where the struggle for suburban swing voters is ground zero for the presidential election — and where voters could set the course for the conservative movement in suburban America for years to come.
Statewide campaigns in battleground Wisconsin are always at risk of tipping one way or the other, and Democrats believe that a cascade of polls shows they’ve successfully turned the suburbs against President Trump for good. Still, more than any other place in the country, this home to a traditional Republican power base can offer a roadmap for Republicans struggling to win over suburban swing voters, no matter what happens in November. Should President Trump and Republicans pull off an upset win, the road to the White House will have most certainly run through southeast Wisconsin. Should they lose — a prospect activists refuse to entertain, correctly noting that Wisconsin had also been pegged for the Clinton column in 2016 — the lessons of what worked here for so much longer than other parts of the country will offer points of navigation in a post-Trump world.
To be sure, these suburbs are changing as more liberal voters move in and some others turn against Republicans, and analysts note that there is a serious chance that Democrats will make further inroads. What was once the stronghold of conservative stalwarts such as Governor Scott Walker, who represented Wauwatosa in the state assembly and raised his sons there, is now the key battleground in a state where Republicans win vast rural areas and Democrats dominate its urban centers. Three of the toughest races for Republicans defending their legislative majorities, as well as Lee’s upstart challenge against state representative Robyn Vining, all lie in suburban communities here that have turned to the left after years of Republicans often running unopposed. And much of President Trump’s fate rests on whether he can minimize Republican risks in those kinds of districts and boost his backing in nearby more conservative areas, while also maximizing the rural vote.
While there has been suburban political slaughter of Republicans in other states, those four tough assembly districts outside Milwaukee have remained tighter than their counterparts elsewhere in the country, and the broader region includes the famed conservative “WOW” counties (Waukesha, Ozaukee, Washington), where data show that the question remains not whether Republicans will lose them but how much they can win them by this year. Independent analysts say the floor for Republican support — even in the event of a loss in some of the more vulnerable areas — is higher because the shift toward liberal demographics and the loss of moderate Republican support here has been less stark.
“You’ll probably see shifts that are more dramatic elsewhere,” Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, tells me. “The swings are going to be bigger (in other states).”
There are lessons for conservatives studying the suburbs, then, in a place like this, a Republican stronghold fighting for some of the most closely watched swing voters, in one of the most coveted swing states, in the most polarized election in modern history. And the telltale signs of conservative strength in southeast Wisconsin — grassroots organization to pound the pavement, policy ideas to animate the movement, and conservative talk radio to galvanize support — remain forces here, even as crosscutting political winds blow. How that conservative strength was built, and how Republicans wield it now, are more crucial to conservative efforts to recover suburban support than ever.
How the WOW Was WonThere was a time when families moving into the suburbs wasn’t a source of liberalism but the signal of conservatives surging. It’s how Representative Jim Sensenbrenner built his base. “I started changing the hearts and minds of people who were moving out of Milwaukee because of high taxes, high crime, and bad schools,” he tells me. After climbing the ranks from state legislature to Congress in 1979, Sensenbrenner and his allies recruited conservatives to run up and down the ballot, while grassroots activists mobilized voters in Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington counties as well as in the suburban areas of Milwaukee County.
Operatives and candidates point to policy ideas animating what amounted to a growing Reagan-style coalition, but one with more staying power and its own twist. There were tax cuts for fiscal conservatives and support of pro-life policies for social conservatives, but there were also reform-minded policies such as school choice and welfare reform under Governor Tommy Thompson in the 1990s.
Around the same time, the late 1980s and early ’90s, Wisconsin talk radio began producing hosts such as Mark Belling who would go on to galvanize conservative voters for decades. Thompson not only performed well in the “WOW” counties that were becoming a stronghold. In 1994 he won 71 out of 72 counties, including Milwaukee County.
By the time of the “Cheesehead Revolution,” the 2010 wave that elected Republicans statewide and persisted for much of the next decade, “WOW counties” had become a household name. Southeast Wisconsin formed the rock-solid base of a party that produced Walker, House speaker Paul Ryan, Reince Priebus, and others.
But operatives also saw internal polling and other signs over the years that showed vulnerability. Charles Franklin, a pollster with Marquette University Law School, says a tough presidential race that has largely shown a steady lead for Joe Biden and suburban women rejecting Republicans raises questions about the party’s path forward. “I think that we’re all kind of asking what the future path of the GOP in the suburbs is,” he tells me.
Changing TimesThese days, Wauwatosa doesn’t feel like much of a peaceful conservative enclave.
On a recent afternoon, an otherwise beautiful fall day felt oddly post-apocalyptic. At Mayfair Mall, the site where Officer Joseph Mensah shot Alvin Cole, massive concrete barriers with bright orange paint blocked off all but a few entry points, with more nearby to block the main entrance that night before the witching hour, when protests would again give way to violence and vandalism.
All down North Avenue were businesses with broken or boarded-up windows — a coffee shop, a beloved dry cleaner, an orthodontist. Even a local education center wasn’t spared, as though foretelling the danger to nearby residential neighborhoods that also got bricks through windows. Blowing through it all was one of those winds that seems to come from all directions, swirling debris and dead leaves in the street.
The political winds, too, are blowing in many directions here. Republicans hope the violence in Wauwatosa — as well as Kenosha, Madison, and cities around the country — will focus voters on public safety, in addition to reopening the economy, while Democrats hope to capitalize on COVID and health care. But there are also larger forces at play. Some blow in Democrats’ favor, while others offer hope to Republicans.
Trending against Republicans are the forces seen across the country. Analysts such as Kondik and Franklin, as well as some Republicans watching internal polling, say suburban support among key swing voters has worsened. Another massive challenge, one that predates Trump and that many conservatives consider the bigger factor, is the influx of liberal voters from Milwaukee into Wauwatosa and other nearby communities. Instead of fleeing taxes or crime to make a better life, they’re the next generation — often downtown-Milwaukee condo-dwellers who grew up comfortably and are socially liberal or progressive.
Scott Jensen, a Republican strategist and former assembly speaker, pointed to research by his Jobs First Coalition: focus groups showing that voters want a legislative candidate who will bring people together to get things done, and polling showing that independent voters are with conservatives on issues such as rioting. More broadly, he says, Republicans’ uphill climb in 2020 shows that they have to leverage the “higher base” they’ve traditionally had in southeast Wisconsin and promote candidates who can bring back swing voters. “I don’t think we have to continue to decline here,” he says.
Some Republicans fear the most affluent suburbs have turned too far against the party, particularly following the media’s portrayal of how the president handled his own COVID diagnosis. Others hold out hope that there is a silent majority in reaction to the riots as Lee runs against Vining, and while Republican incumbents run for reelection in those three tough neighboring districts — state representatives Rob Hutton, Jim Ott, and Dan Knodl. Meanwhile, candidates point to bipartisan COVID relief, passed under Republican assembly speaker Robin Vos and majority leader Scott Fitzgerald, as proof they’re fighting COVID.
Lee is campaigning on restoring safety and prosperity to Wauwatosa, for example, while Vining hammers health care and social justice. Hutton, who fielded a challenge from a nurse named Sara Rodriguez who credits COVID-19 with getting her in the race, warned he’s running in a “50-50 district in a 50-50 state” where he’ll need to draw support from Republicans of all stripes, independents, and crossover Democrats. He hopes his record, including his proposal of a bill offering tax relief to businesses that were impacted by the COVID shutdown, will demonstrate conservative policy solutions with broad appeal.
Other winds still blow in Republicans’ favor. In 2016, Republicans faced not only the surge of liberal and moderate suburban voters but also hesitation among conservatives who were unsure of their unconventional presidential nominee. Today, Trump has largely unified Republicans, not just with his willingness to take on the Democrats but also with a string of conservative accomplishments: tax cuts, a pre-COVID economic resurgence, and conservative judges.
Bill McCoshen, a Republican strategist and former chief of staff to Governor Thompson, tells me that the importance of the economy — in Franklin’s Marquette poll, it’s an issue that most voters still trust Trump on — and matters such as the confirmation of Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett leave President Trump positioned better now in broader southeast Wisconsin than in 2016. “Trump is now focusing on issues that they care about most,” he says of southeast Wisconsin voters.
The level of support also depends on where you are and on which voters you’re talking to. In other places, outside of those four assembly districts facing the liberal influx, some conservatives see greater strength.
Chris Lawrence, a conservative activist and vice chair of the Republican Party of Milwaukee County, sees room to win over more voters in communities such as Franklin, Greendale, and Greenfield (suburbs less impacted by liberal in-migration) and Cudahy and South Milwaukee (more solidly middle class). “We have a base here. . . . It’s hard to break,” Lawrence says in an interview, adding, “We have got to start building relationships with new voters coming into the districts.”
Remnants of a StrongholdThe army of activists knocking doors in southeast Wisconsin has something to say about all of this. They note that one of Republicans’ biggest assets is the massive ground game still knocking on doors, while Democrats largely eschew in-person canvassing (although, in validation of the strategy, some legislative Democrats have also begun doing doors). The Trump campaign has taken this to the next level, combining the efforts of the Republican National Committee, the Republican Party of Wisconsin, and campaign staff into a fully integrated field program that’s tapping local grassroots networks, too. Conservative groups such as American Majority Action and Americans for Prosperity further the phalanx.
Data show that in-person contact — which, activists note, they do with proper social distance and masks, as appropriate — has a higher penetration rate than virtual alone. “People are getting blasted by messages in all directions,” says Michael Cody, a 51-year-old volunteer from New Berlin who told me he has knocked doors every Saturday since early summer. “You try to form a rapport with the people that you’re talking to.”
The local parties in this part of the state are aggressive, and often more organized than most. The Republican Party of Waukesha County, for example, has identified between 80,000 and 100,000 swing voters whom it believes, given the intensity of support for the president in some areas, it can bring along to support Trump and other Republicans.
Communities such as Muskego demonstrate the upside that still exists in some suburban and exurban areas of the WOW counties — if Republicans can win over older independents, blue-collar women, and other demographics whom the Democrats hope to lead down the same path as they are leading affluent suburban women.
Out here, rallying cries for the Second Amendment, for example, resonate, along with those for the economy. The quiet roads winding across rolling hills are marked not by social-justice banners but by “Back the Badge” signs, and American flags line lawns and are strung up on flagpoles. Trump signs stand in clusters — often, activists say, because one family will put their sign out and then others feel emboldened to do the same.
State Representative Jessie Rodriguez is running in a battleground assembly district that has areas in Milwaukee County where Republicans hope to run stronger. She says successful candidates have to differentiate themselves with an agenda that will improve peoples’ lives — from fighting tax hikes to improving foster care. “The reason that we’ve been successful is because people have felt that they can continue to grow and prosper,” she says in an interview.
A broad policy agenda that allows the conservative movement to lead on ideas is also key to past and future success. Chris Mohrman, a lawyer and former aide to Governor Thompson, says it takes an “endless stream of ideas” to stay on offense. “If you get behind on policy, the politics will catch up with you,” he tells me.
And in many of these places, conservative talk is still king. Though longtime host Charlie Sykes famously went Never Trump in 2016 and left talk radio, other hosts, including Belling, Jay Weber, Vicki McKenna, and Dan O’Donnell, support the president and work to give Republicans a reason to vote. O’Donnell says in an interview that, despite changes to conservative talk, southeast Wisconsin still has numerous hosts, whereas many suburban markets have none. “You’ve got an alternative viewpoint that’s easily accessible, and readily available,” he says.
What the future looks like, of course, will depend on who the party leaders are, nationally and in Wisconsin in 2022. But the most seasoned activists here know that inspirational candidates, and the big money they bring that’s needed to completely fuel a political movement, come and go. Those forces that course through the history of southeast Wisconsin — grassroots organization, policy ideas, and robust conservative media — are more lasting, and still here.
The question now is whether they’re reaching enough people to turn 2020 around — or laying the groundwork for the next conservative revolution in Wisconsin.