What History Tells Us about the GOP’s Chances of Holding the Senate If Trump Loses

Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) speaks to the media in Washington, D.C., September 22, 2020. (Joshua Roberts/Reuters)
For clues, look to Trump's polling in the states that will determine control of the chamber.

NRPLUS MEMBER ARTICLE W e don’t know yet what will happen in the presidential election, but the odds clearly favor a Joe Biden victory, and even more strongly favor the Democrats holding the House. Harry Truman in 1948 was the only president whose party retook the House before the end of his presidency, after losing it. If Biden wins, much of his agenda will thus depend on whether Democrats take the Senate. If Trump pulls out a surprise victory, his ability to keep confirming judges at a brisk clip will likewise depend on the Senate. In some ways, control of the Senate may be

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