Where We Go from Here

I t is possible that Joe Biden hurt himself enough with his daft utopian talk of “transitioning” (what a funny recent career that word has had) Pennsylvania’s energy jobs into oblivion to cost himself the election. It is unlikely that Donald Trump will be reelected, though it was unlikely that he would be elected in 2016 — unlikely things are unlikely, not impossible. But if conservatives are faced with a Biden-Harris administration in 2021, then what?

The answer to that will depend immediately and urgently upon whether Mitch McConnell is the Senate majority leader or Chuck Schumer is. If Republicans maintain control of the Senate, then that body has a good chance of performing its authentic constitutional role — a brake — to a reasonably satisfactory degree. Senator McConnell is wise enough to keep as low a personal profile as his job allows, but, if he were more inclined to braggadocio, he might plausibly claim to be the single most effective political figure of his time. He may not be remembered that way, because his successes have been informed by Calvin Coolidge’s advice: “It is much more important to kill bad bills than to pass good ones.” The past decade would have been much more destructive if Senator McConnell had been less successfully obstructive. Holding the Senate is critical to Republicans.

Republicans should also try to learn the lesson of their great electoral success during the Obama years. Republicans lost the presidency, twice, but Democrats lost half of the governorships and 13 of the 27 state legislatures they had controlled; at the start of the 111th Congress (2009–11), Democrats occupied 256 House seats, but they lost their majority in the 112th and were down to 188 by the start of the 114th. By the end of the Obama years, Democrats had been reduced to a weaker position than any they had endured since the 1920s. Obama rode high into Washington, and with Democrats in control of the presidency and both houses of Congress, they were able to fulfill a generational dream of . . . enacting a half-bright health-care plan that was falling apart before it was even in place. When Republicans had reestablished their legislative position, Obama was reduced to that “pen and a phone” stuff, and his grand designs for “fundamentally transforming America” were frustrated.

Barack Obama is an unusually gifted politician who came along at an unusually propitious moment. Joe Biden is — not that. Neither is Kamala Harris.

Thanks in large part to the efforts of Senator McConnell, conservatives find themselves in a much better judicial position than they were only a few years ago, with courts that are arguably the most reliably constitutionalist that the modern era has seen. If there is a Biden presidency — especially a Biden presidency constrained by a Republican Senate — conservatives should shift their attention to litigation. The conservative legislative posture in Washington has been largely defensive, but conservatives have made real legislative advances at the state level. That means that every win for federalism in the courts is a win for conservatives, both as a matter of principle and as a matter of practical politics. The more power and decision-making can be pushed out to the states and municipalities, the better positioned conservatives will be. Beyond that, conservatives have a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to achieve lasting wins on issues ranging from the sanctity of human life to the sanctity of the Bill of Rights. These should be pursued relentlessly.

There is much that can be done, even in the event of a Biden presidency. But if Biden does win, Republicans and conservatives (these are not synonyms) should take the opportunity to do some soul-searching, too. Republicans have lost the cities and are losing the more urban suburbs as well — that, and not newly settled Californians, is why the 38 electoral votes of Texas are no longer a bulwark for Republicans. Educated and affluent Americans are trending Democratic. A Republican Party and a conservative movement that can speak only to Americans’ resentments and not to their aspirations does not have a future. Belittling and sneering at the aspirations of Americans who want to go to Stanford and work at Apple is as foolish and as wrong as sneering at the aspirations of those who want to stay in their hometown and work at the family hardware store or on the family farm. There are many ways to lead a good life. But every year, this country gets a little less rural and a little more urban, and a Republican Party that cannot compete in the cities cannot compete.

Republicans have blown some important opportunities. When the so-called Affordable Care Act was being debated, Republicans had very little to say other than to insist that “America has the best health-care system in the world.” And maybe that’s true, but many people were — and are — dissatisfied with many aspects of it: the lack of price transparency, the insecurity of coverage, medical bills that make no sense, an insurance-dominated medical culture in which patients are treated like livestock, etc. The system makes too many Americans feel powerless — and that is a problem. “Free markets will take care of it!” is not a persuasive answer, even to those of us who do believe that market competition will produce the best outcome. There are many forms that a more market-oriented system could take, and Americans are not irrational for failing to simply trust that the right one will emerge.

Some of my more excitable friends insist that losing this presidential election will mean the end of the country. That’s irresponsible hyperbole, often put forward by people who have nothing else to offer. Whatever happens on Tuesday, there will be opportunities to do some good, and things in America will be what they always are: what we make of them.