Don’t Believe the Hype: GOP Favored in Georgia Runoffs

I t looks as if control of the Senate will be determined by a pair of January runoff elections in Georgia.

Democrats insist they will win both seats and tie the Senate 50-50 (with Vice President Kamala Harris breaking the tie). But history is not on their side.

Republicans have won every statewide runoff vote in state history, an unbroken string that started in 1992.

Democrats counter by saying that Georgia is changing, and record turnout of mail-in ballots made the difference in giving Joe Biden his current lead in the state.

Political groups have already spent over $173 million on the Georgia Senate races this fall. A multiple of that is likely to be spent over the next two months before the January 5 runoffs.

But Republicans like their chances no matter how many millions Democrats spend. The Biden campaign, worried that its volunteers were scared of COVID-19, did almost no door-knocking until the final weeks of the campaign.

By contrast, Republicans built up their ground game and fully deployed it this year in Georgia. CNN reports that “they have a big head start in terms of collaboration on the ground, voter selection, and messaging.”

And no matter how much money is spent, voter turnout in runoff elections held around the Christmas and New Year’s holiday period is always smaller than it is in presidential races. Watch Republicans motivate their base to turn out by pointing out that Democrats Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock would give House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer and Biden the ability to push through a radical agenda.

“There is nothing that motivates hard-core Republican voters more than the thought of Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer legislation being rubber-stamped into law by Joe Biden,” says former Georgia GOP representative Jack Kingston. “Americans like a balance.”

Democratic Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin says the liberal sales pitch will be: “Basically, to America: You’ve elected a president now. Now give him a chance to govern. If Mitch McConnell is looming over every decision with a big ‘no’ button, it makes it very difficult.”

It probably did not help the Dems’ cause in Georgia that Schumer was out Saturday saying that if they win the Georgia seats, they will “change America.” Georgia voters may have acted to change the occupant of the White House, but it’s doubtful they wish to “change America.”

Georgia is certainly more competitive than it has been due to demographic changes and a drop-off in suburban women supporting Republicans. But it is easy to exaggerate the change. Georgia Democrats spent tens of millions of dollars to take control of one or more houses of the state legislature, hoping to exercise influence in next year’s redistricting process.

Their effort failed. So far, Democrats have gained only one new seat in the Republican-controlled House — far short of the 16 seats needed to flip the chamber.

Indeed, House Minority Leader Bob Trammell was defeated in his district southwest of Atlanta.

A tough two months of runoff campaigning lie ahead. But the likely outcome in Georgia is that the incoming Biden administration will take office with no mandate and seeing its candidates repudiated in Georgia just before the president takes office on January 20. Even Chuck Schumer would recognize that’s not a platform from which to “change America.”