The Numbers Say Biden Wins, and Yet . . .

President Donald Trump raises his fist during a campaign rally at Dubuque Regional Airport in Dubuque, Iowa, November 1, 2020. (Carlos Barria/Reuters)
Why I’d be surprised, but not shocked, if Trump pulls off another upset victory.

NRPLUS MEMBER ARTICLE O n Election Night 2016, my father’s lifelong best friend sent me a Facebook message, asking who would win.

I had written more than 100 columns on the election for by this point. But my father’s friend lives in Ireland, and the coverage of American politics there tends to magnify and intensify the kind of media bias you see here. I told him he probably wasn’t getting the whole story from The Irish Times and RTÉ. I even told him, somewhat perspicaciously, that there would be many Obama voters who voted for Trump. But I remained confident that Hillary would win,


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