A Kristolized Left?

I think Bill Kristol has asked the most necessary question in American politics. And one that too few — left, right, center — have asked. It can be reduced to two words: Now what? Although the headline writers at The Bulwark have chosen three that are just as good: What about Joe?

Kristol asks this for a very good reason. He himself is a leading Never Trump figure. But, unlike so many others, Kristol has recognized that “Trump” can no longer be the defining term of American politics. In effect, Kristol sees what so many people in the mainstream media, among progressive intellectuals, and in the conservative movement have not: Joe Biden is president now. At least until the Iowa caucuses, the major figure in American life that can change the terms of our politics is Joe Biden.

Now, cards on the table: I don’t tend to view politics through the lens of the latest elected leaders. Trump never defined conservatism for me, and neither did George W. Bush or Ronald Reagan. There have been times when I thought my politics had no future in either party, and I would remain entirely homeless. But my conservative politics are a decidedly worse fit for the modern Democratic Party than for the current Republican one.

But Kristol is looking at the Democrats and wondering what the possibilities really are. Tim Miller, a former opposition researcher for moderates like former ambassador and Utah governor Jon Huntsman, has talked up the possibility of “red dog” Democrats:

Miller writes:

The “Red Dogs” who are looking for a home in the Democratic party [are] college-educated, largely white suburbanites in major metropolitan areas who used to be Republicans or swing voters. (Remember the security moms ? Most of them are Red Dogs now.)

Kristol asks what the possibilities are for working with Biden and moderate Democrats who did so well in swing districts in the 2018 midterms. These elected officials are supported by ex-Republicans, particularly in the suburbs. They were also crucial to Biden’s success in 2020 and his triumph over more progressive nominees.

You can almost squint and imagine a viable red-dog Democrat politics. You could point to it beginning even before Trump. Upwardly mobile and educated voters have been moving into the Democrat column since the early 1990s. The Obama administration was their true coming-out party, and they were able to beat back progressives on even small-ball reforms to the tax code, such as when they warned Obama against any alteration to the tax privileges on 529 college savings plans.

These red-dog voters gave Democrats a congressional majority in 2018 because they despised Trump but also because Democrats in those swing districts ran on bread-and-butter issues, not as Green New Dealers and identity-politics-obsessed, left-wing culture warriors.

The mention of “security moms” is apt too. We are seeing some efforts in the new administration at recommitting to Afghanistan as a theater of ongoing war, and the multiplication of reasons for ignoring the agreed-upon withdrawal dates. NATO is committing more resources to Iraq. But full-spectrum red-dog hawks may be disappointed in Biden yet. Over the course of his career Biden was more dovish, particularly during the late Cold War, than is popularly remembered. And his administration will not commit to staying out of the Iran nuclear deal negotiated by Obama.

For intellectuals like Kristol, there could be some appeal in consolidating a sane center-left and freezing out the wokesters: reviving the Clintonite tendency among pocketbook African-American voters who chose Biden over progressive ideologues. With the Republicans becoming a more natural home for cultural populism, a center-left could consolidate around expertise, research over conspiracy theory, and policy over grievance.

However, even if the gamble of moving to the center-left paid off most of the time, the shift would certainly mean giving up on any form of judicial or social conservatism. It would mean favoring a government that was less constrained by the Constitution and giving up on pro-life politics.

Now, almost selfishly, I wish the red dogs had bite. If Kristol and friends could make a move into the Democratic Party, blunt its left-wing edge, and moderate it on several issues, then the legacy of the Never Trump movement would be to dramatically push the center of gravity in America to the right. And it could even make it easier for my own politics to get space in the Republican Party.

But I think the fatal problem for this project is that the center-left does not have the moral or intellectual capacity to resist the woke revolution. This is being proven over and over again in other institutions, whether it is the ACLU or the New York Times. Older, institutionally oriented liberals are simply incapable of resisting the demands or fending off the fatal attacks of younger left-wing staff. Why would the Democratic Party — almost alone — stand firm against the woke revolution that is roiling everything else?

It won’t.

Would these Never Trump red dogs be comfortable as the anticlerical enforcers of the Equality Act? Can they accept a renewed Iran deal? Will they be able to swallow their pride and try to make the Green New Deal work?

If they have any residual attachment to the Constitution — any conservative instincts at all — the answer to all these questions is no.