If Gavin Newsom falls in a recall election, here’s who could be poised to take his place.
If Gavin Newsom falls in a recall election, here’s who could be poised to take his place.
W ell, well, well, how the tables have turned, now the shoe is on the other foot, etc., etc., etc. While Ron DeSantis basks in the Florida sun and Greg Abbott does the same in Texas now that it’s clear they did not turn their respective states into Jonestown-style death cults, Andrew Cuomo and Gavin Newsom — once hailed as the political heroes of the COVID-19 crisis — are floundering.
So weakened is Newsom that he faces an all-but-certain recall election in deep-blue California. Around 1.3 million signatures of the 2.1 million turned in by organizers have already been verified. To trigger a recall, 1,495,709 (12 percent of the total votes cast in the last gubernatorial race) votes are needed. At that point, petitioners would have 30 days to remove their signatures, then the legislature would have 30 days to estimate the cost of the election. Finally, the lieutenant governor would need to schedule an election within 60–80 days. The ballot would include two questions, one over whether to remove Newsom from office and then another over who should replace him. For the second to matter, a majority must favor recall on the first. If Newsom is defeated, whoever wins a plurality on the second moves into the governor’s mansion.
It seems doubtful that Newsom will see his political career ended by this effort. However, the fact that organizers succeeded in even bringing it into question suggests that there is a chance. California is a much different, more progressive place than it was back in 2003 when Democrat Gray Davis was replaced by Arnold Schwarzenegger. But if someone other than Newsom is running the state by the end of 2021, it will probably be one of these people:
Republican Kevin Faulconer
If the GOP is to not only take down Newsom, but replace him with one of their own, it would seem that Faulconer is its best bet. The winner of two mayoral elections in San Diego, Faulconer is the furthest thing from a base-pleaser. He’s pro-choice. He’s an outspoken supporter of the LGBT community. He even championed a Climate Action Plan in the state’s second-most populous city. In most states, he would be skewered in a Republican primary. A primary-free, free-for-all recall election, however, presents the California Republican Party with an opportunity to remake itself in the image of its counterparts in New Hampshire, Vermont, and Massachusetts. Though it would be preferable to elect rock-ribbed conservatives in these states, that remains a political impossibility. Better to first gain power with moderates and earn the trust of the electorate by demonstrating the basic governing competencies Democrats have failed in on issues such as housing and forest management. Moreover, Faulconer does have real conservative credentials, having opposed tax increases while improving San Diego’s fiscal footing and being vocally in favor of school reopenings during the pandemic.
Republican John Cox
John Cox is running for governor professing to be a “problem solver, not a politician,” but it’s certainly not for lack of trying. He launched bids for the House and then the Senate in Illinois in the early 2000s, then for president of the United States in 2008. In 2018, he lost to Newsom in the largest Californian gubernatorial landslide since 1950. If you visit his website, you’ll find that Cox wisely focuses his “Solutions” section on California-specific issues rather than hot-button social issues. However, he has on-the-record comments about the LGBT community that are sure to hurt him in any California general election. On the bright side, Cox is much stronger than Faulconer on pro-life issues. Though no potential GOP governor will be able to make meaningful policy changes to abortion law in the state, it certainly makes a difference whether the argument is even being made. Perhaps Cox can tailor his message better in the context of a recall race, but it’s somewhat hard to imagine him prevailing given his lack of previous success.
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It must be stated — before speculating on specific would-be Democratic contenders — that if any prominent Democrat jumps into the race, it greatly increases the chances that Newsom is given the boot. Rob Stutzman, Schwarzenegger’s former deputy chief of staff, has noted aloud what many believe to be true: A run from anyone in his own party could prove devastating. “I mean, he is no favorite of the progressives that are activists within the party,” Stutzman told New York magazine. “I think progressives will see an opportunity to win the governor’s office, which otherwise would be more difficult.” It is widely believed that then-lieutenant governor Cruz Bustamante’s decision to put his name on the recall ballot had a devastating effect on Davis in the 2003 recall, further undermining the incumbent’s argument for remaining in office. So far, no Democrats have declared their candidacy, but there are a few possibilities.
Democrat Antonio Villaraigosa
A former mayor of Los Angeles, Villaraigosa ran for governor in 2018 but lost decisively in the jungle primary and endorsed Newsom. Asked by the Los Angeles Times about throwing his hat in the recall race, he demurred, saying “politics is the last thing we should be talking about,” but he’s also echoed Newsom’s detractors on Twitter, calling for the immediate reopening of California’s schools. Without a doubt, Villaraigosa’s entrance would make for a more intriguing race. He could run to Newsom’s right without straying from the “right” side of California politics.
Democrats Kevin de León or Ro Khanna, or a Progressive to Be Named Later
The progressive wing of the California Democratic Party has so far remained loyal to Newsom. Congressman Ro Khanna got Bernie Sanders to condemn the recall. Los Angeles city councilman Kevin de León, who challenged Dianne Feinstein from the left back in 2018, has been campaigning for Newsom on Spanish-language television. So far, the floodgates have held. It’s not hard to imagine a scenario where Newsom looks vulnerable and an ambitious progressive — be it Khanna, de León, or someone else — enters the race under the guise of protecting the governor’s mansion in the event Newsom loses the first ballot.
Democrat Tom Steyer
He’s back. Not by popular demand, but he is back. Democratic donor and 2020 presidential candidate Tom Steyer is reportedly polling the recall race and including his name among the potential replacements for Newsom. Like the rest of the party, Steyer is condemning the recall effort as a whole. However, if there’s one person with a large enough ego to throw his hat in the ring to the detriment of the team, it’s Steyer, who spent tens of millions of dollars of his own money on a vanity run for president. Unlike that race, Steyer could be a major player in this one. His war chest would allow him to blanket the airwaves, something that would go a lot further in a statewide race than it did in a national one and potentially make him the progressive frontrunner. Steyer has the motive and the means to make a serious run. Still, he’ll have to ask himself two questions: Can his money make up for his dearth of political talent? And is he willing to become persona non grata within his party if Newsom holds on or a Republican wins on the second ballot question?
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The California recall is destined to be one of the most fascinating political stories of 2021 because it brings so many threads together: the pandemic, the first year of the Biden administration, the state of post-Trump American politics, and the politics of natural disasters. It’s a scene made even more watchable by the uncertainty over who will participate. In 2003, well over 100 names appeared on the ballot. Already, Newsom has three Republican challengers — former congressman Doug Ose is also running, but he’s a decidedly less compelling candidate than either Faulconer or Cox — and there remains the possibility of a “friendly fire” challenge from a well-known Democrat. Perhaps even more terrifying an eventuality for Newsom is the inclusion of a “wild card” such as Schwarzenegger in 2003, Jesse Ventura in Minnesota in 1998, or Donald Trump in . . . well, you probably remember that one.
In politics as well as in show business, your star could rise, fall, or implode at any moment. Time will tell what fate awaits Gavin Newsom in California.