An expert estimates the process will hand Republicans three to four seats, but there’s still a lot of uncertainty about how it plays out.
An expert estimates the process will hand Republicans three to four seats, but there’s still a lot of uncertainty about how it plays out.
O n Monday, the results of the 2020 U.S. Census, which determine how the 435 U.S. House seats will be apportioned for the next decade, were released. Texas picked up two seats, while Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon each picked up one. California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia, meanwhile, each lost one.
On the presidential level, reapportionment doesn’t change much. If the 2020 presidential election had been run with the new electoral map, Joe Biden would have won the Electoral College 303–235 rather than 306–232. So it seems unlikely that the results of the process will play a critical role in the 2024 presidential election. But the 2020 Census and redistricting alone could determine control of the House of Representatives in 2022.
Republicans will likely need to make a net gain of just five seats to win back control of the House, and David Wasserman, the House editor of the Cook Political Report, estimates that they are on track to pick up three to four seats from reapportionment and redistricting. But there’s still a lot of uncertainty about how the redistricting process will play out.
Wasserman, who meticulously follows the redistricting process, says that the outcomes of redistricting could plausibly range from Democrats having a small advantage to Republicans picking up ten seats. The best-case scenario for the GOP, he tells National Review, is that “Republicans get the maps they want in Ohio, Texas, [and] Florida. [That] Democrats can’t agree on a plan in New York and it ends up being drawn by a court again. [And] that [redistricting in] California makes the Republicans who won [there] in 2020 a bit safer. If [Republicans] get all of those things, they could pick up ten seats from redistricting alone.”
Control of redistricting varies state by state: In some states it’s up to a commission, and in others it’s up to the legislature. In the latter states, the governor usually maintains veto power, and in some instances the courts have stepped in to throw out maps drawn by legislatures. “Courts struck down Republican maps in Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania in the middle of the decade. Had it not been for courts ordering new maps in those states, then Democrats would be in the minority today,” Wasserman notes.
The best-case redistricting scenario for Democrats, Wasserman says, “would involve courts striking down Republican-drawn plans in Florida and Texas on racial grounds [and] Republican plans in Alabama and Louisiana on the grounds that there should be additional black-majority districts there, and a commission in Ohio passing a plan that is kind of partisan-neutral — and then New York Democrats being able to get their way and Illinois Democrats being able to pass the map they prefer.”
“If all that happens,” he adds, “this redistricting cycle could be a wash or even a small gain for Democrats. But I don’t think everything is going to go one direction.”
Of course, redistricting is just one piece of the 2022 puzzle. Midterm elections have depended heavily on presidential job-approval ratings, and it’s hard to know where President Biden’s numbers will be 18 months from now. Biden’s job approval now sits at about 53 percent, but “if it’s south of 50, I don’t see a way for Democrats to hold onto their majority,” says Wasserman. “Even if it’s 55 [percent], I think the House would be a close call.”
“Keep in mind, we don’t know if we have accurate [polling] samples these days,” he adds. “If we have a systemic polling error of the kind we had in 2020, polls could indicate a 55 percent Biden job approval, but the electorate that shows up could give him only a 50 percent job approval.”
It remains to be seen what issues pop up to be seized on by congressional campaigns over the next 18 months — Wasserman notes that two big question marks are whether immigration and inflation will hurt Democrats. But you can be sure that anyone interested in control of Congress in 2022 will be paying close attention to how redistricting plays out, too.