Has Marvel Peaked?

P oor Marvel Studios. Ever eager to get its popular comic-book-movie releases into the Chinese box office, the billion-dollar-earning Disney subsidiary tailored two of its upcoming releases specifically with China in mind. Only a certain number of foreign films are allowed into the country each year, so ingratiating oneself with the Chinese is one way for foreign (i.e., American) films to up their chances. But for complicated (and somewhat amusing) reasons, the prospects are uncertain that either movie will be released in China at all, according to a recent report by the film-trade publication Variety. This is just one of many challenges facing Marvel as it seeks to extend its decade-plus of box-office success with the popular comic-book genre. Indeed, there is reason to believe that we have already seen the peak of Marvel.

This would be a big change. Since 2008, when the release of Iron Man launched the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU), Marvel Studios has mostly been riding high. The idea of giving inherently juvenile comic books A-list acting and production pedigrees did not begin with Marvel. But its approach, which also involved separate franchises for individual characters who would interact across movies, thus advancing smaller narratives while simultaneously furthering an overarching one, seemed to create a mutually reinforcing effect that made each individual movie more popular, supercharged receipts for collaborations, and turned once-obscure titles (e.g., Guardians of the Galaxy) into hits.

The approach reached a recent peak with 2019’s Avengers: Endgame, a culmination of years of storytelling groundwork, established over 22 prior movies, that was designed almost literally as fan service (much of the film involves retelling parts of previous movies). The fans rewarded this by making it the most popular entry in the MCU and one of the most-seen movies in world history. I did not grow up as a comic-book devotee, but Marvel nevertheless had, through 2019, succeeded in roping me in as a fan of the MCU’s movies. I have seen every one of them, from Iron Man through Endgame, including the occasional stinker. I did so out of a strange sense of commitment, and because they were designed as the kind of formulaic yet competent, entertaining, and humorous films that were genuinely enjoyable movie-theater experiences.

So what could end this streak of success? The first of several challenges that Marvel now faces is similar to, but more acute than, that facing the rest of Hollywood: The pandemic has severely damaged the movie business. Streaming may have taken off over the past year or so, but Hollywood needs those theater dollars to thrive (to survive?), and many people are still reluctant to return. (Though there are some who are more keen to do so.) Because the Marvel movies tend to be such theatrical hits, with some of them making upwards of a billion dollars worldwide, Disney declined to release any, in whatever form, last year, whereas recent years have tended to see at lease two or three. That previous release schedule kept up a sense of momentum that the pandemic has now interrupted. And it did so at a time when the big, overarching story that the Marvel movies had been telling, in one form or another, since 2008 had been concluded. This will seriously test the commitment of many people who had been or had become serious Marvel fans during the previous period, who now may have moved on to other things and just aren’t as interested anymore.

The second challenge Marvel faces is that it may have burned through its best material, and what remains may present difficulties. While it’s true that the MCU has a solid record of elevating once-obscure characters, many of its best characters — Captain America, Iron Man, the original Black Panther — are now out of the picture, either because they have been written out or because reality, which is often disappointing, has intervened, as with the case of Black Panther (played by the now-deceased Chadwick Boseman). Its Phase Four slate includes some familiar characters, but also others from a depth of prior obscurity at least rivaling, if not outright exceeding, anything that has been featured yet.

Some of its existing characters have also had additional layers of complexity added to them via shows on Disney+, Disney’s streaming service; Marvel fully intends to incorporate these developments into future movies. Although Disney+ is quite popular, this further incorporation raises the threshold of commitment required for full enjoyment and understanding of what is going on in the movies, whereas previously you “just” had to see what was in theaters.

There is, furthermore, a chance that future Marvel movies will abandon the largely apolitical nature of most of the previous films — arguably only Captain America: Winter Soldier touched on contemporary politics in any serious way, though Captain Marvel’s overpowered and boring protagonist was a hackneyed symbol in her own right — in favor of a soft (or not-so-soft) left-wing worldview. (And no, despite some interesting themes, Black Panther does not quite get there, either.) I have not seen the Disney+ The Falcon and the Winter Soldier, but reviews suggest that it has already done this. If Marvel alienates its potential audience through the loss of key characters, self-indulgent complexity, or a further-pronounced political turn, it will likely see an erosion of its broad appeal.

The final challenge is one facing much of the world at the moment: China. Like Disney, its parent company, Marvel seems content with accommodation, the better to ensure that its films are admitted into a market where censors still limit and determine which foreign films get theatrical releases there. And to be fair, it had engaged in this behavior somewhat in previous films. Iron Man 3 (2013) had four minutes of additional China-centric footage when released in that country. And Doctor Strange (2016) changed the ethnicity of one key character from Tibetan to “Celtic,” explicitly to avoid offending the Chinese.

So, what about those two films that Marvel added to its Phase 4 lineup, almost certainly to cater to the growing Chinese film market? The Eternals was directed by the Chinese-born Chloé Zhao (who just won a best-director Oscar for Nomadland). Zhao has been critical of the Chinese regime, a big no-no for the film censors there. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, with Chinese-born star Simu Liu, is receiving criticism in China for the perceived racist history of the comic books that some of its characters are drawn from, and for a supposedly overly stereotypical view of China. Thus it appears that Marvel’s strategy of accommodation may well have the exact opposite of its intended result. As the world is increasingly learning, the Chinese market can be a fickle beast; its potential financial rewards come with the risks of subjecting oneself to the caprices of the regime — as well as to backlash from fans elsewhere who resent such kowtowing.

It’s possible that Marvel will prevail against the headwinds it is facing. It will have some advantages: some new properties once separated from Marvel Studios for complicated reasons, such as X-Men and Fantastic Four, coming back into its possession; a consistent ability to draw top talent; and, above all, its brand.

But the headwinds are real. As for my own continued interest, Endgame seemed like a useful jumping-off point from what is, we should recall, a product at least originally designed for children. I have not watched any of Marvel’s streaming shows, nor do I intend to. I may see the movies that truly interest me, but my compulsion for Marvel completionism is at an end. And we may soon discover that I’m not the only one.