Japan Awakens

C hina is in a tough neighborhood, bordering Afghanistan, Bhutan, India, Kazakhstan, North Korea, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Vietnam. But for both historical and current reasons, one of the countries that looms largest in its political thinking is a neighbor that doesn’t quite border it: Japan.

Japan, one of the few successful examples of U.S.-imposed “nation building,” has followed an official policy of semi-pacifism since the end of World War II. Given the atrocities committed by Japan during that war and before, the world, and particularly Japan’s near neighbors, were thankful for a quiet and friendly Japan.

But things have changed since the end of the war: Japan has now been in its postwar liberal-democratic mode for almost as long as Joe Biden has been walking the Earth, and it has shown itself to be a good citizen of the world. But it is also a nervous one, and Tokyo’s biggest long-term foreign-policy challenge is the same as Washington’s: the so-called People’s Republic of China ruled by the Chinese Communist Party, which will be marking the 100th anniversary of its founding on Thursday.

Speaking at the Hudson Institute on Monday, Deputy Defense Minister Yasuhide Nakayama was frank: The independence of Taiwan is a “redline” for Japan. “We have to protect Taiwan as a democratic country,” he said. Beijing was, predictably, enraged by the characterization of Taiwan as a country of any kind. But Taiwan is a country, a matter of practical fact that is obscured by the fiction of the “one China” policy.

Taiwan is only a few miles from the Japanese islands of Okinawa, so a Chinese incursion there would bring Chinese forces to Japan’s doorstep. But Chinese forces make regular incursions into Japanese waters, having done so dozens of times this year alone. These incursions come in the form of official Chinese coast-guard vessels and the vessels of China’s effectively militarized fishing fleet, which Beijing itself describes as a maritime militia. Chinese incursions into other nations’ sovereign airspace are an increasingly common occurrence, as well. Both are part of an obvious intimidation campaign meant to soften up China’s neighbors and their Western allies on the matter of Taiwan along with China’s many other disputed territorial claims.

Chinese adventures in and around Okinawa bring Beijing into direct conflict with Japan but also invite conflict with the United States: There are 80,000 Americans in Okinawa — active-duty military, civilian support staff, and their families.

In his remarks, Nakayama was blunt about the panoply of Chinese threats, including long-range missiles. “We have to wake up,” he said.

Japan already has stirred itself. Among other changes, Tokyo has announced plans to raise military spending above its traditionally modest level of 1 percent of GDP. China greeted this announcement with complaints that Japan is engaged in an “arms race,” which it is. We should do what we can to ensure that Japan wins that race, which would serve our own national interest as well as the interests of Asia and the world at large.

There are political limitations and cultural sensitivities that will complicate Japan’s awakening, especially on the matter of nuclear weapons. As a matter of official policy, Japan forswears the production and possession of nuclear weapons, including nuclear weapons controlled by allies based in its territory. As recently as 2016, then–prime minister Shinzo Abe affirmed that Japan would never even consider possessing nuclear weapons. But earlier this year, Japan refused to ratify the U.N. Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, and the possibility of developing such weapons has been a quiet part of the Japanese political conversation for some years.

If Japan should decide to change its anti-nuclear posture, then the United States should support its decision, if only quietly or tacitly. But the most pertinent question is not whether Japan changes its position on nuclear weapons — nuclear warheads are only one technology among many, and Japan, which is among the most technologically sophisticated of all countries, has many choices when it comes to the instruments of its defense. The more significant change is not in its arsenal but in its geopolitical outlook and its domestic political attitudes. Though China looms large in Washington’s imagination, it is far away from American shores. Japan’s Senkaku Islands are within 200 miles of the coast of mainland China.

Japan is a reliable and, by this point, longstanding American ally. That distinguishes it from many of China’s troublesome and potentially troublesome neighbors: Any trouble Kim Jong-un of North Korea makes for Beijing is bound to be trouble for Washington, too. But a stronger and more assertive Japan would be a good thing from the point of view of American interests. It would also be a headache for Beijing, and we should encourage the development of those, within reason.