Gavin Newsom and Larry Elder Caught in a Tight Race in California

A ugust has been a rough month for Democratic political royalty. Governor Andrew Cuomo, the son of the late governor Mario Cuomo, resigned in disgrace over sexual harassment and COVID scandals. Terry McAuliffe, the longtime fundraising fixer for the Clintons, is polling below 50 percent in his attempt to reclaim Virginia’s governorship.

And California’s Governor Gavin Newsom, whose family has been intertwined for generations with the families of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and former governor Jerry Brown, is in grave danger of being ousted from office in a September 14 recall election.

Newsom’s plight is surprising. He was elected with 62 percent of the vote in 2018 in a one-party state, where Republicans haven’t won a single statewide office in 15 years.

But he has squandered his political capital. His handling of COVID-19 has been characterized by constantly shifting lockdowns, closed schools, vaccine-distribution snafus, and an unemployment-benefits scandal that may have seen $31 billion improperly go to prisoners, fraudsters, and people out of state. Half of the state’s people are under a mask mandate. COVID restrictions have especially hurt Latinos. They gave Newsom 64 percent of their vote in 2018, but recent polls show more Latinos back the recall than oppose it.

Indeed, Newsom has acquired a reputation as an arrogant elitist who acts as if mandates are for “the little people.” He turbocharged the recall by breaking his own coronavirus rules and attending an opulent dinner at French Laundry with lobbyists. His children have had in-person learning at an elite private school since last fall, even though he claims “he’s been living through Zoom school” — a statement the Sacramento Bee found “mostly false.” Just last month his kids had to be yanked from a summer camp because the governor said he suddenly learned it had no mask requirements.

Then there are California’s intractable problems. A BANANA movement (Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anybody) has pushed housing costs to stratospheric heights. A new survey by a former pollster for Joe Biden has found that 65 percent of Californians believe that crime is getting worse. High taxes, stifling regulations, and poor schools are driving more and more businesses to leave, and household moving vans follow them out of the state.

This disillusioning environment created the conditions for the September 14 recall. Voters will be presented with two questions. The first will be whether Newsom should be recalled. The second will be who should succeed him if a majority removes him. The candidate with the most votes on the second question becomes governor, no majority required.

Unlike the recall that vaulted Arnold Schwarzenegger into office in 2003, there is no celebrity candidate this time. Newsom intimidated any even remotely known Democrat from filing to replace him, and the relatively unknown Republicans who have been debating each other have proved themselves knowledgeable but bland in their presentation.

The exception is attorney and talk-show host Larry Elder, who is skipping the debates and focusing on Newsom. Elder has honed a cerebral and spirited conservative critique of California’s ills in 27 years on the state’s TV and radio stations. All the polls show the self-proclaimed “Sage of South Central” easily topping the field of GOP candidates.

Governor Newsom also clearly believes that Elder is the major threat to his tenure. He paints Elder as a threat to climate-change regulations, abortion rights, and bans on fracking. He claimed the recall would decide if California would follow the policies of Florida’s GOP governor Ron DeSantis and “go off a cliff.”

Elder campaign spokesperson Ying Ma quickly fired back: “Gavin Newsom is running scared. . . . Larry believes in liberty and the ingenuity of the people of California, not Newsom’s repressive edicts or the cronyism of his allies.”

In the end, the result of California’s recall will be determined by two questions. Can the unlimited contributions that Governor Newsom’s big-business and big-union allies pour into his coffers juice the enthusiasm level of Democrats? Second: Will a governor who even his friends acknowledge is “accident prone” be able to dodge more examples of California’s suffering impacting voter consciousness before the recall?

Governor Newsom himself recognizes that the passions of voters will determine his fate. “At the end of the day, this is all about turnout,” he admits.

Early polls found a much higher level of interest in the recall among Republicans. But the mail-in ballots that have been returned so far don’t reflect much liberal apathy — 55 percent have been cast by Democrats. The wild card is that polls have also shown up to 20 percent of liberals in California support the recall. That group may end up being the wild card in this recall.