The California governor appears vulnerable in his state’s recall election. So Democrats are kicking their ballot-harvesting machinery into high gear.
They know that their biggest challenge in winning California’s recall election in September is the governor himself.
Democrats realize their biggest challenge in winning California’s September 14 recall election is Governor Gavin Newsom himself.
The latest Emerson College survey shows the recall failing among likely voters by only 46 percent to 48 percent. Even one out of ten who oppose the recall say it’s time for “someone new” in the governor’s office, so if he does survive the recall, his reelection chances in 2022 could be dicey.
A recent Public Opinion Strategies poll found that 57 percent of voters give Newsom a D or an F on homelessness, and 49 percent give him the same low grades on controlling the state’s cost of living.
Democrats realize that all this creates a turnout problem. Newsom’s critics can’t wait to fill out their recall ballots and express their frustration with him. Loyal Democrats don’t want to remove him from office, but they are either indifferent about voting or believe the recall can’t possibly succeed. A recent Los Angeles Times poll found 80 percent of registered Republican voters were likely to vote in September compared to only 55 percent of Democrats.”
Democrats think they can overcome this “energy deficit.” Emergency pandemic election regulations have been extended so that every registered voter will get a ballot in the mail. That will allow Democrats to kick their ballot-harvesting machine into gear.
The first step is to instill fear among Democrats about what the consequences of replacing Newsom with a Republican could be.
As my NR colleague Aron Ravin reported:
“Stop The Republican Recall,” a political action committee, has recently released a flurry of advertisements and social-media campaigns desperately trying to slander the reputation of recall voters. . . . Campaigners are attempting to characterize the recall as entirely partisan, orchestrated by an impressive array of “national Republicans,” “anti-vaxxers, Q-Anon conspiracy theorists and anti-immigrant Trump supporters.” They even toss in the Proud Boys for good measure.”
Newsom himself says the recall will decide whether or not California will follow the policies of Florida’s GOP governor Ron DeSantis and “go off a cliff.”
According to Newsom, Larry Elder, the front-runner among Republicans aiming to replace Newsom if he’s recalled, is a threat to climate-change regulations, abortion rights, and bans on fracking.
But Democrats should be careful to avoid going too far. Christine Pelosi, the daughter of House speaker Nancy Pelosi, has spoken out against efforts to label the recall effort as “partisan.” “That’s FALSE and offensive — I know Newsom voters and volunteers who signed the recall and told him so. Calling me a liar is a bad strategy!” the younger Pelosi tweeted in May.
But Project Fear will work with much of the party’s base. Democrats will then take advantage of their 2016 legalization of “ballot harvesting.” Previously, only a family member or someone living in the same household was permitted to drop off mail ballots for a voter. But the new law lets anyone — including political operatives — collect and return ballots for a voter. Democrats also have prohibited “disqualifying a ballot solely because the person returning it did not provide on the identification envelope his or her name, relationship to the voter, or signature.”
Ballot-harvesting invites mischief and undermines public confidence in elections. In 2018, Orange County registrar Neal Kelley reported that campaign workers in his county were seen dropping off hundreds of ballots. This allowed Democrats to flip four House seats in Orange County that year. In 2020, Republican efforts to collect ballots in church parking lots, shooting ranges, and Big Box stores took back two of those seats.
But this year, tens of millions of dollars in public-employee union contributions to Newsom will finance a bumper crop of ballots for Democrats. Paid advertising supplemented by frequent texts to every registered Democrat and armies of operatives knocking on every door will all be part of the effort.
But Newsom’s dead weight may still be dragging down the anti-recall effort in early September. Especially if wildfires, drought, electricity brownouts, and COVID restrictions create a vicious cycle of bad political news. That’s why some Democrats are already talking about the possible need for Hail Mary passes to keep the nation’s most important governorship.
A new SurveyUSA poll taken for KABC-TV and the San Diego Union-Tribune was the first survey to find pro-recall forces in the lead. But the real head scratcher in the results came when respondents were asked whom they would vote for in the election to replace Newsom should he lose the recall. The poll selected one Democrat and six Republicans out of the 46 names on the ballot and asked voters whom they wanted. The first name listed was Kevin Paffrath (D), a 29-year-old YouTube personal-finance guru and the only one of nine Democrats running with a plausible political résumé. As the only Democrat offered to respondents, Paffrath won 27 percent of those who said they would vote for a Newsom replacement. Republican talk-radio host Larry Elder was second with 23 percent of the replacement vote. John Cox, the 2018 GOP nominee for governor, was third, with 10 percent of the vote.
What to make of the fact that a complete unknown like Paffrath scored so well? Many observers see it as a sign that lots of recall opponents will vote for any Democrat offered them rather than turn the governor’s office over to a conservative. But if Newsom continues to appear vulnerable, some Democrats could openly call for abandoning him and trying to consolidate the state’s Democrats around Paffrath. Republicans would then be under greater pressure to consolidate their support around one candidate to win the replacement vote.
As with every political story, there is feverish speculation about even wilder scenarios. One suggests that if the recall seems inevitable, Democrats could pressure Newsom to suddenly resign, thus canceling the recall election and installing Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis, a Democrat, in the top job.
But that scenario isn’t plausible. Newsom is a proud man and not one to run away from a fight. In 2003, Democratic governor Gray Davis was in worse political shape than Newsom is now, but Davis fought the recall attempt against him to the bitter end. In addition, Kounalakis would inherit the governorship as a poisoned chalice. Voter anger at the tricky maneuvering that gave it to her would likely doom any chance she’d have of winning election in her own right in 2022.
Even without such dramatics, California’s recall election will feature enough twists and turns. Litigation is inevitable no matter what the result, the flood of mail-in voting could delay a resolution for weeks after the September 14 vote, and in a close contest, we’ll no doubt hear allegations about the sloppy or nonexistent verification of voter signatures.
California’s politics can always be guaranteed to produce vivid personalities and a surplus of entertainment. Sadly, all that drama has not helped solve the state’s intractable problems in the past few years.
The recall election will offer California voters a real choice on the direction of their state. COVID lockdowns, closed schools, rising crime, homelessness, and high taxes are finally forcing the state’s media and voters to focus on substance for a change.