When they went soft on core principles, demoralized voters stayed home or voted for an upstart third party.
When they went soft on core principles, demoralized voters stayed home or voted for an upstart third party.
W hen Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau called a snap election for this past Monday, the Conservative opposition had the chance to present a real contrast to his “woke” Liberal government. Instead, Conservative Party leader Erin O’Toole ran a muddled campaign that resulted in the Conservatives doing worse than in their 2019 showing. The Liberals will form a minority government, with 158 seats in Parliament, while Conservatives will have 119 and other parties will have 61.
O’Toole won a party vote to become leader last year, promising to run as a “true-blue conservative.” But during his campaign, he disavowed his party’s past positions on many issues. He unveiled a 160-page, glossy platform called “We Have a Plan.” The only problem for party stalwarts was that it included support for a carbon tax, a pledge to uphold Trudeau’s ban on 1,500 types of guns, and promises to spend more than Liberals in many areas.
“He has distanced himself from being Conservative,” said Jenni Byrne, who was campaign manager for former Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper. She called it a gamble — and a mistake. “There seems to be a lack of enthusiasm everywhere.”
Much of the conservative enthusiasm went instead to the upstart People’s Party of Canada (PPC), founded by Maxime Bernier, who almost won the 2017 race for the Conservative leadership. Bernier accused O’Toole of abandoning “core conservative principles.” He spoke of the need for “a real freedom revolution in this country, because we know when tyranny becomes law, revolution becomes our duty.” He ran on a platform of phasing out stimulus spending, eliminating funding for the public Canadian Broadcasting Corporation and multicultural ministries, and ending Trudeau’s war on the oil and gas industry.
A flashpoint in the campaign was the issue of vaccine passports, which would be required of people entering indoor events and restaurants and other venues. “We are the only national political party against vaccine passports. We believe in freedom of choice — everyone must be able to decide for themselves,” Bernier told supporters. For his part, O’Toole once again waffled, saying he opposed Trudeau’s vaccine mandates but would nonetheless allow provinces to introduce their own vaccine-passport programs.
Bernier’s clear platform attracted disillusioned Conservatives and gave his People’s Party 5.1 percent of the vote — double the vote of Canada’s long-established Green Party. The People’s Party won more votes than the losing Conservative candidate received in 25 districts, a clear sign of conservative dissatisfaction with O’Toole’s me-too ism.
The message for U.S. conservatives is clear. While it’s important to seek out independent and moderate support, the conservative base has to be motivated to turn out. If they aren’t, they may stay home or opt for third-party candidates who speak more clearly about issues.
The next test of this will come in the Virginia governor’s race this November. Republican candidate Glenn Youngkin is running a strong campaign. But some conservatives say he is failing to motivate his base as much as he should. In 2013, Republicans lost the Virginia governor’s race by 2.5 percentage points at the same time the Libertarian candidate captured 6.5 percent of the vote.
Virginia Republicans are making progress in convincing former Republicans in Northern Virginia to reconsider the GOP. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has just declared the race a “toss-up,” and the Democratic candidate, former governor Terry McAuliffe, has failed to crack 50 percent in any polls.
But Republicans can’t forget that while they hunt for votes in the moderate suburbs, they also have to promise bold and clear change that will drive the turnout of conservatives who are fed up with liberal overreach.
Otherwise, the GOP may repeat the mistake of the Canadian Conservatives, who got the mixture of moderation and commitment to principle wrong and have now suffered their third straight nationwide defeat.