China has the largest nuclear program and missile program that are free from any formal treaty constraints.
A let’s-be-friends approach only plays into Chinese hands.
C hina’s nuclear-weapons program is in high gear. America’s ability to deter it is waning. The latest Pentagon report on Chinese military power says it likely will have 1,000 nuclear warheads of various types in the coming decade. It lends credibility to a call by the Chinese Communist Party publication the Global Times last year that argued for a 1,000-nuclear-warhead arsenal, saying “we just need to accelerate the steps that make it happen.” Recent Chinese nuclear saber-rattling against Japan and Australia suggests that China intends to use its nuclear arsenal to bully its neighbors.
“The accelerating pace of the PRC’s nuclear expansion may enable the PRC to have up to 700 deliverable nuclear warheads by 2027. The PRC likely intends to have at least 1,000 warheads by 2030, exceeding the pace and size the DoD projected in 2020,” the Pentagon report said.
China’s nuclear buildup was absent from his video conference with Chinese leader Xi Jinping this week. Biden discussed climate change and Taiwan with Xi, but China’s runaway nuclear program was not specifically mentioned.
General John Hyten, the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, noted the Pentagon’s unease, warning that China could soon have the ability to launch a nuclear first strike against the U.S. Hyten’s remarks came in an interview with CBS News on Tuesday, the same day as Biden’s video conference with Xi.“They look like a first-use weapon,” Hyten said, discussing China’s orbital hypersonic missile test last summer. “That’s what those weapons look like to me.”
National security adviser Jake Sullivan hinted on Tuesday that nuclear talks between the U.S. and China may be held in the future. “There’s less maturity to that in the U.S.–China relationship but the two leaders did discuss these issues. And it is now incumbent on us to think about the most productive way to carry it forward,” Sullivan said. Nuclear modernization and the expansion of the Middle Kingdom’s nuclear capabilities became a top priority starting in 2016, after Xi addressed the CCP’s Central Committee. Xi called it “the strategic support of my country’s status as a major power.”
Chinese propaganda claims the nation is the only nuclear power that has a “No First Use” standard for nuclear weapons, meaning that it will not strike first. However, American leaders such as Admiral Charles Richard, who leads the U.S. Strategic Command, are skeptical. He suggested China’s nuclear buildup is all about coercing the U.S.
“I like to think of this as the final brick in the wall of a military designed to confront a peer nuclear-capable opponent, in other words, us, the United States, and be able to coerce them,” Richard said in September, “and coercion is something that nuclear forces have been used for throughout history.”
The People’s Liberation Army is well on its way to having a complete nuclear triad of missiles, submarines, and bombers akin to that possessed by the U.S. and Russia. China has two types of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) under development. It has several sites where it is believed to be building hundreds of nuclear-missile silos. In 2020, China’s DF-17 nuclear-capable hypersonic glide vehicle became operational. Its stockpile of DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) also grew in the past year.
The Pentagon estimates that China has 150 ICBMs, 300 IRBMs, 600 medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs), 1,000 short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs), and 300 ground-launched cruise missiles (GLCMs). The ICBMs can carry multiple warheads, which makes knowing exactly how many warheads China has a challenge.
China has deployed its aerial-refuelable H-6N bomber and has an H-20 intercontinental stealth bomber under development. Its development and deployment of ballistic-missile submarines continues apace. “Equipped with the CSS-N-14 (JL-2) submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), the PLAN’s six operational Jin-class SSBNs represent the PRC’s first credible sea-based nuclear deterrent,” the Pentagon report said. “Each Jin-class SSBN can carry up to 12 JL-2 SLBMs.”
China refused to talk with the Trump administration about becoming the trilateral partner of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) last year. A senior Trump-administration official who worked with the Chinese on nuclear weapons, speaking on the condition of anonymity, warns that Biden is in an even weaker position. The Biden administration promptly dropped the Trump administration’s insistence on including China in START.
China has the largest nuclear program and missile program that is free from any formal treaty constraints. It also has capabilities, such as its hypersonic orbital bombardment system, that the U.S. has no defenses against. This has Congress worried. “China’s test of an orbital bombardment system is only a ‘Sputnik moment’ if we let it result in a new arms race. Through your leadership and diplomacy we can ensure that does not happen,” said a letter signed by Democratic senators Ed Markey (Mass.) and Jeff Merkley (Ore.), along with representatives Don Beyer (Va.) and John Garamendi (Calif.). Sputnik proved that a warhead could be launched into orbit.
This hypersonic orbital bombardment system has the potential to be much more deadly than any current weapons system because it can change course and strike from unknown trajectories. It makes America’s current nuclear-missile defenses obsolete due to its speed, orbital capability, and ability to adapt like a spacecraft. It is hard to track both by satellites and by ground radar because the orbital bombardment system goes into low Earth orbit. China launched its orbital bombardment system using the same Long March rocket used by its space program. That means China can camouflage a nuclear attack against the U.S.
Their letter called on Biden to do the following:
• Pressure China to adhere to START-type on-site inspections of its nuclear program;
• Sign a treaty ending the production of fissile material that can be used in a nuclear weapon;
• Join the Hague Code of Conduct, which requires parties to pre-announce their ballistic and conventional space launches;
• Ban cyberattacks on nuclear-weapons infrastructures in both countries;
• Achieve an agreement on limiting hypersonic missiles.
At this point, such an agreement is wishful thinking, especially since China has shown that it doesn’t abide by treaty commitments. Its violation of the treaty with the U.K. over the governance of Hong Kong and of other human-rights treaties are notable examples. Biden likely lacks adequate political capital in Beijing to move the needle, and his administration’s cowardly approach to Beijing since January doesn’t leave much room for diplomatic hope.
The Biden administration faces pressure from the Left to adopt a No First Use posture on the U.S. strategic nuclear arsenal. Doing this is akin to having poker players show their cards.
The Global Times is cheering on Biden to do that: “If the US, as the world’s No.1 military power, announced restrictions on the use of nuclear weapons, it will, without doubt, create constructive opportunities to global security, with advantages outweighing disadvantages.”
Biden was on record during the campaign supporting the examination of a No First Use policy. Richard Johnson, a negotiator on the Obama-era Iran nuclear deal, is leading the administration’s review of the U.S. nuclear posture. He is relying on many individuals who were involved in the last review of the U.S. nuclear posture in 2018 under Trump. Adopting a No First Use policy is becoming increasingly difficult due to the growing Chinese and Russian nuclear threats, Politico said.
Congress is on record supporting the funding of U.S. nuclear modernization, which likely will not be realized until sometime in the mid 2030s. A bipartisan consensus exists against lowering the nation’s nuclear deterrence. The Senate version of the National Defense Authorization Act offers a strong reaffirmation of American nuclear power.
Now is not the time to cut our nuclear deterrent. Peace comes through strength. The Biden administration’s weakness invites aggression. The answer is to push ahead with the modernization of the U.S. nuclear arsenal, early-warning systems, and defenses.
Time is running out to effectively deter China’s nuclear buildup. An arms race is here, whether Joe Biden wants one or not. His weakness could invite a nuclear catastrophe.