It is important to understand that Iran is a key ally of China and Russia, both of which are happy to use Tehran for their own purposes.
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is every bit as much Moscow’s man as he is Beijing's.
R ussia has invaded Ukraine. China continues to threaten Taiwan. And their friends in Tehran, who are on the verge of a new nuclear deal with the U.S., are no doubt pleased.
The Islamic Republic, it must not be forgotten, has close ties with both Moscow and Beijing. In an era in which U.S. policy-makers are increasingly focused on “great-power competition,” it is important to understand that Iran is a key ally of China and Russia, both of which are happy to use Tehran for their own purposes.
China is a top trading partner with Iran. A few weeks ago, Tehran dispatched Hossein Amirabdollahian, the country’s foreign minister, to Beijing to discuss the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership that the two nations signed in March 2021. China, a Reuters news report noted, “became a lifeline for Iran’s economy after the U.S. withdrew in 2018 from a nuclear agreement agreed between major powers and Tehran.”
The 2021 agreement gave Iran billions of dollars in energy and infrastructure investment. Beijing’s billions have helped shelter Iran from the effects of U.S.-imposed sanctions that were enacted over Tehran’s support for terrorism and hostage-taking and its attempts to obtain a nuclear weapon.
The Islamic Republic and China have long had a symbiotic relationship. Indeed, the close ties and constant travel between the two countries led to a particularly acute Covid-19 crisis in Iran during the spring and summer of 2020. U.S. policy-makers, including then–secretary of state Mike Pompeo, have also voiced concerns that Iran could go on a spending spree and acquire major arms from Beijing.
Such concerns are not unfounded.
Indeed, in January 2022, China, Russia, and Iran held, for the third time, joint military exercises in the Indian Ocean. The maneuvers, Radio Free Europe noted, came “amid speculation that the three countries are teaming up in the face of growing regional tensions with the United States.”
Russia, for its part, is a major arms supplier to Iran — and has been for a very long time. According to one study, from 1995 to 2005, more than 70 percent of Iran’s arms imports came from Russia. Russia has supplied conventional arms, including tanks and small arms, as well as a multitude of different missiles — some of which have the potential to hit U.S. naval ships.
Naturally, Russia and China expect returns on their investments.
By supporting the Islamic Republic, Moscow and Beijing gain an ally that can act as a foil against U.S. interests in the Middle East, as well as in Latin America and Africa, where Iranian proxies such as Hezbollah are active and influential. Iran provides both Russia and China with the ability to distract or even damage the United States in a region that remains key to the United States and its allies. Moscow and Beijing hope that Iran can bog down the U.S. — or its allies.
The three countries are also kindred spirits. All three are kleptocratic autocracies that seek to upend the Western-led liberal order. All three want to eliminate American influence from their respective regions, supplanting the U.S. and expanding their own spheres of influence. And all three are ruled by men who have established, to varying degrees, cults of personality while trampling on human rights. Iran has even blamed the West for Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine.
Yet these links and commonalities have escaped some journalists and policy-makers.
The Obama administration, for example, presented the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, better known as the “Iran Deal,” as part of a larger strategy of U.S. withdrawal from the Middle East. Tehran’s nuclear-weapons program, it was argued, needed to be addressed as the United States “pivoted to Asia.” But the deal’s numerous documented flaws, including its sunset provisions and lackluster inspection requirements, virtually ensured that the Islamic Republic will eventually gain nuclear weapons.
Indeed, in 2018 it was revealed that Iran had — despite promises and pledges to the contrary — continued to work on its nuclear-weapons program. And while the Trump administration exited the deal, current indicators suggest that the Biden administration is well on its way to securing an even weaker agreement with Iran.
Michael Doran, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, has argued that the real purpose behind the negotiations isn’t to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons — neither the previous agreement nor the forthcoming one will do that. Rather, the real purpose is a forlorn hope to make Iran a strategic partner of sorts. If so, Washington is backing the wrong horse. If the U.S. is looking for an exit from the Middle East, it would make more sense to bolster a democratic ally such as Israel, and not the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism.
With another Iran deal hovering in the background behind the Ukraine crisis, U.S. policy-makers should keep this fact in mind: Empowering Iran only aids Russia and China. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is as much Moscow’s man as he is Xi’s.