Nothing serious has ever come from negotiations over democracy with Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro. His criminal regime cannot risk free elections.
Nothing serious has ever come from negotiations over democracy with Nicolás Maduro, because his criminal regime cannot risk free elections.
T his week, the Biden administration announced a weakening of energy sanctions against the Maduro dictatorship in Venezuela, saying it had done so at the request of the country’s democratic opposition. But that bland assurance is misleading both as to what the opposition wants and as to what the administration has given away.
It’s worth looking first at what U.S. officials are saying. Here are the relevant parts of the CNN story:
The Biden administration will begin to ease some energy sanctions on Venezuela to encourage ongoing political discussions between President Nicolas Maduro and the opposition, two senior administration officials told CNN.
The first step . . . will allow Chevron — the last major US oil company still operating in Venezuela — to negotiate its license with state-owned oil company PDVSA to continue operations in the country, the officials said. . . .
The decision to ease some US energy sanctions on Venezuela came at the request of the country’s opposition, a senior administration official said, as it looks to return to negotiations with the Maduro regime. . . .
The administration took the steps on Tuesday “in full coordination” with Guaidó and his interim administration, which the US recognizes as the rightful leadership of Venezuela, one official said. Before sanctions relief goes any further, the US will have to see meaningful progress in the political discussions, the officials said.
Absent here is another part of the concessions the Biden administration made: lifting sanctions on Eric Malpica Flores, a nephew of Venezuela’s first lady. Despite the administration’s claim that it was doing everything at the request of and in close coordination with Guaidó and the opposition, Axios reported that “the Venezuelan opposition released a statement saying that they did not ask the U.S. to lift any sort of personal sanctions from specific officials.” On this point, the administration is simply being misleading.
But let’s take the main claim, that the opposition wants negotiations with the Maduro regime and is willing to support some easing of sanctions. What the opposition actually wants is real and serious negotiations with a firm starting date. Now think about what the Biden diplomats did. They could have told the regime that as soon as the negotiations begin, sanctions will be eased. Give and get. Instead, they made their concessions in advance, getting nothing in return. Opposition sources say the regime is now demanding that Norway, which has long played a useful role in fostering serious talks, must henceforth be excluded. The likelihood is that dates for the negotiations will slip, or a first round will be held and then the talks will end. Nothing serious has ever come from negotiations over democracy with Nicolás Maduro, because his criminal regime cannot risk free elections.
The Biden administration has made some elementary diplomatic errors here, and once again telegraphed its desire to get more Venezuelan oil on the world market. That in itself is a fool’s errand, because Venezuela lacks the capacity to increase exports quickly and substantially.
The net effect of this episode is to strengthen Maduro, weaken the democratic opposition, and get nothing in exchange for preemptive concessions. Senator Robert Menendez, the Democrat who chairs the Foreign Relations Committee, had it right when he said that “giving Maduro a handful of undeserved handouts just so his regime will promise to sit down at a negotiating table is a strategy destined to fail. The United States should only consider recalibrating sanctions in response to concrete steps in negotiations, not simply in response to cheap talk from a criminal dictator.”