Republicans in last week’s primary election somewhat uncharacteristically nominated candidates who offer appealing alternatives in the most important races.
Many stars must align for Republicans to break 40 years of Democratic control of Oregon. Many of those stars have indeed aligned for 2022.
O regon, as much as any state, is known for its progressive politics. The quirky 2010s Portlandia-era progressivism of the state’s largest city made that city, and by extension the state it dominates politically, a haven for people who care deeply about the provenance of the chicken they are about to eat, and who care even more about voting Democratic.
Oregon’s reputation as a deep-blue, progressive state is both accurate and well-earned. For generations now, Oregonians have voted Democratic with a fervor they otherwise reserve only for hiking and driving Subarus. In 1984 Oregon voters elected a Republican governor and supported the GOP presidential ticket. They have done neither of those things since. Meanwhile, aside from brief periods in the mid-1990s, Democrats have dominated both houses of the state legislature and its congressional delegation. There are nearly three registered Democrats for every two registered Republicans in the state.
Yet Oregon appears poised to shed a meaningful amount of its beloved blue coloration this November. Oregonians will elect a new governor and at least one (more likely two) new U.S. House members, and will have an opportunity to shape the entirety of its state house of representatives and half the state senate. Today, two weeks after the state’s primary election, the relevant question is not whether Republicans will pick up ground this year, but how much.
The unusually positive 2022 prospects for Oregon Republicans arise from factors that are both more influential and more localized than the well-known fact that the party opposite the president’s usually does well in midterm elections. Oregonians of all political stripes are disgusted with the results of decades of unified Democratic governance, and Republicans, for a change, look ready to capitalize.
A pre-primary poll conducted by DHM Research, a well-respected, Portland-based nonpartisan pollster, describes in stark term the degree of voter disgust. Two-thirds of Oregon voters believe that the state’s economy is poor or very poor, and 62 percent say it’s getting worse. Respondents were most concerned about cost of living, homelessness, violent crime, and political leadership. And in the wake of months of mass riots in 2020 that, along with an ongoing and spiraling homeless crisis, has hollowed out downtown Portland, the poll showed Oregonians are more concerned (by 13 percentage points) about left-wing political extremism than they are about the right-wing version. Sunny Portlandia progressivism has given way to gloom as dark as a rainy Oregon January day.
There is little that Democrats can do to fix the problems voters care most about. The perpetually regnant party has, at times, sought to curtail the police department’s funding and its ability to fight crime; has largely been unwilling to condemn Portland lawlessness; has tried to increase gas prices to fight climate change; and refuses to take even modest steps to curtail the homeless camps that dominate downtown Portland and have cropped up in other cities.
Accordingly, voters appear to blame Democrats for these problems. Respondents had a “very negative” view of outgoing, term-limited Democratic governor Kate Brown; 53 percent felt the same about Joe Biden. In a hypothetical three-way gubernatorial matchup between a generic Republican, a generic Democrat, and a generic independent, the Republican comes out on top (26 percent), the independent second (21 percent), and the Democrat third (16 percent).
That poll may be a bit of a Republican-friendly outlier, but other recent polls have consistently shown that Oregon voters strongly disapprove of the direction in which the state is headed, and Joe Biden and Kate Brown are quite unpopular. It’s become a well-acknowledged fact among Oregon politicos, Democratic and Republican, that Kate Brown is the nation’s least popular governor.
Oregon voters overwhelmingly think things are bad and blame the Democrats in power. And Republicans in last week’s primary election somewhat uncharacteristically nominated candidates who offer appealing alternatives in the most important races. (The Oregon GOP shares the blame for its extended time in the electoral wilderness: It failed twice to gather enough signatures to subject the “nation’s least popular governor” to a recall election.)
In a three-way showdown that should bring national attention, Republican Christine Drazan faces Democrat Tina Kotek and Betsy Johnson, a former Democratic legislator running as a non-affiliated candidate. Drazan, formerly the state-house GOP leader, is a mainstream conservative unencumbered by the personal and political baggage of her primary opponents. She holds mainstream Republican positions on abortion and other social issues that have caused problems with the base for prior, more moderate, Republican nominees.
Kotek, the former state-house speaker, is very similar to Kate Brown, but more progressive and with a reputation for sharp political tactics. She redistricted a house Democrat out of his seat while he was away on National Guard duty and could not vote against the bill that ended his political career. After besting a more moderate primary opponent, she assumes the role of quasi-incumbent, an unenviable task given the mood of the electorate. On crime, homelessness, the economy, and inflation, there will be no discernible daylight between Kotek’s positions and those of her predecessor.
Johnson, who holds standard Democratic positions on taxes and social issues but broke with her caucus on a bill to hike energy costs in the name of arresting climate change, is the wild card in the race. Her campaign has thus far been focused on tearing into the Salem (Oregon’s capital) establishment represented by Kotek, and Democratic groups have returned fire, suggesting that Kotek is concerned that Johnson’s bid will attract voters who otherwise would vote for the Democrat.
This pattern is repeated in Oregon’s two high-profile congressional races, both of which result from a major overhaul in redistricting. Republicans in the state’s fifth congressional district nominated another mainstream conservative Republican woman, Lori Chavez-DeRemer. The Democrats nominated progressive Jamie McLeod-Skinner, who bested Biden-endorsed incumbent Democrat Kurt Schrader.
The sixth congressional district, brand-new thanks to Oregon’s gaining a seat following the 2020 census, pits Republican businessman Mike Erickson, who carries some name identification from prior campaigns, against Democrat Andrea Salinas, a progressive state legislator from Portland who was endorsed by Elizabeth Warren in a crowded primary.
The X factor for Oregon Republicans in this cycle may be the role of former longtime congressman and past chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee (House Republicans’ campaign arm) Greg Walden. Walden, who retired as Oregon’s sole GOP member of Congress in 2021, was at the helm of the NRCCC in 2016, when the party won more seats than it had in any election since 1928. In the mid-1990s, before going to Congress, Walden played a key role in winning GOP control of the legislature, serving in both the state house and the state senate. Now back in the private sector, Walden is spearheading a well-funded effort to pick up Republican seats in the Oregon legislature. His track record suggests he’s good at doing just that.
Many stars would have to align for Republicans to break 40 years of Democratic control of Oregon. Many of those stars have indeed aligned for 2022. American politics are changing rapidly in many ways, and while it’s a long way ’til November, as they say, don’t be surprised if we end up adding Republicans’ winning Oregon to the list.