This administration should stop dreaming of international summits that would very likely produce nothing but more tension.
This administration should stop dreaming of international summits that would very likely produce nothing but more tension.
I f you only have a hammer, the old saying goes, you see every problem as a nail. This is about as good an explanation as we will get for the most recent Biden administration move on the Israeli–Palestinian front.
Barak Ravid of Axios reported as follows on June 8:
Israel last week rejected a proposal by the Biden administration to hold a high-level summit with the Palestinian Authority, three Israeli officials told me . . .
During a meeting in Washington last week with Israel’s national security adviser Eyal Hulata, Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman raised the possibility of holding a five-way summit between Israel, the PA, the U.S., Egypt and Jordan, Israeli officials said.
According to the Israeli officials, Sherman proposed the summit of foreign ministers could take place in Washington or in the region.
Hulata said the Israeli government thinks the conditions on both sides are not ripe for such an initiative and stressed Israel isn’t interested in a photo-op that ends with nothing and results in an “expectation crisis.”
“We don’t like this idea. Past experience taught us that such an expectation crisis could lead to an escalation on the ground,” a senior Israeli official told me.
A high-level summit with the Palestinian Authority (PA) right now would serve no useful purpose. As the Israelis suggest, there is a real downside in creating an “expectations crisis.” But that might be outweighed by the proposal’s upsides — if there were any.
There are none. Even inveterate “peace processors” in the United States and in Israel acknowledge that there is no chance for any agreement today. This is largely because the PA has the support of so few Palestinians, and is viewed widely as both incompetent and corrupt. As of last fall, 80 percent of Palestinians were demanding the resignation of PA president Mahmoud Abbas, and roughly the same number have complained of corruption in poll after poll. Another 2021 poll found that 67 percent of Palestinians want to annul the Oslo Accords entirely. Even more significantly, 60 percent of respondents opposed the principle of a two-state solution, and 54 percent opposed resuming negotiations with Israel.
Perhaps strong, credible leaders could change public opinion, but the Palestinians have no strong leaders who favor peace. Serious negotiations always require compromises, and the PA is in no condition to make any. At the same time, Israel’s coalition government is unsteady, and one can wonder whether it could make tough compromises right now — even if there were a reliable, trustworthy Palestinian partner for peace.
There is none. Why, then, is the Biden administration seeking a summit meeting? Again, because its officials only have that one hammer: “negotiations for a two-state solution.” Secret talks between Israel and the Palestinian leadership on security and economic issues are actually far more likely to be productive, but they will not produce the theater the Biden officials appear to want: PA, Israeli, and Biden officials smiling for the cameras.
There is no chance of progress right now toward a two-state solution — and this is acknowledged even by those who strongly support it. Back in 2019, Dennis Ross said: “The psychological gaps are so great. The disbelief is so great. The political circumstances on each side don’t lend themselves to making big decisions.” I’d argue that every word of that remains true, and indeed both the Israeli and Palestinian governments are weaker now than they were in 2019.
What should U.S. officials be doing? They should be seeking pragmatic ways to help Palestinians, who face enormous economic and governance problems. They should be dealing with realities on the ground and trying to make lives better. And they should stop dreaming of summits that would very likely produce nothing but more tension.