Recent polling is a warning for the state GOP but certainly not a death knell.
Recent polling is a warning for the state GOP but certainly not a death knell.
O n Tuesday, the Detroit News published a poll that indicated grim prospects for Republicans in Michigan. Incumbent governor Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat who rose to prominence in 2020 for quarreling with President Donald Trump over her draconian Covid-19 policies, destroyed every one of her hypothetical Republican challengers. Not only did the poll show that Whitmer’s approval rating has increased from 48 percent to 55 percent since September, but it also put the best-performing Republican, Ryan Kelley, who was arrested in June for allegedly entering the Capitol during the January 6 riot, behind Whitmer by nine points, 50–41 percent. Although many insiders and consultants sounded the alarm in response to the poll, it is far from a death knell for Republicans in the state or a sign of the red wave receding. Rather, it is more a testament to the sheer lack of name recognition in the Michigan Republican primary.
This is a unique and local set of circumstances that dims, for now, the GOP’s prospects in the state. The simple fact is that barely anyone knows who the Republican candidates are, and that’s been true for the entire cycle. The best-known candidate, former Detroit police chief James Craig, had a real chance of beating Whitmer when the season began in fall 2021. He led her by six points in a September poll, though his advantage dissipated months later, and he was leading the other Republican candidates in primary polls until he was disqualified in late May for turning in too many fake signatures on his ballot petitions.
With Craig gone, the race is wide open, but remaining candidates are struggling to make themselves known. The challengers have few accomplishments that voters find relevant, and none have held elected office. Kelley is a real-estate broker who organized protests at the state capitol, some of which were armed, against Whitmer’s lockdown measures. Kevin Rinke is a businessman who has the most to spend on campaigning. Tudor Dixon is a commentator with endorsements from Right to Life of Michigan, the state’s police union, and the family of Trump’s education secretary, Betsy DeVos. Garrett Soldano is a chiropractor who started the “Michiganders Against Excessive Quarantine” Facebook group, where residents aired their grievances against Whitmer’s pandemic orders. Ralph Rebandt is a pastor who has served in multiple conservative think tanks and task forces. Other than those who are terminally online and/or deeply invested in Republican politics, the candidates’ backgrounds just aren’t compelling for most ordinary voters. In the polls since Craig’s disqualification, the most popular primary candidate has consistently been “undecided.”
Kelley received a boost in the immediate aftermath of his arrest, likely because he was the only candidate to gain name recognition from a national headline. He was the only Republican candidate who was not completely unknown to a majority of participants in the most recent Detroit News poll, but even then, he was known to only 50 percent of them. The “winner” in the most-unknown category was Rebandt, with 84 percent not having heard of him; he polled the worst against Whitmer, at 37 percent to her 52 percent.
As we are seeing in other states, the candidates the GOP nominates matter as much as or more than a general trend of ill will toward President Joe Biden. In Georgia, there is a serious disparity in polling between the gubernatorial and Senate races. Incumbent Republican governor Brian Kemp holds a seven-point lead over his Democratic challenger, Stacey Abrams. The same poll showed Democratic Senate incumbent Raphael Warnock leading Republican challenger Herschel Walker by three points. Although Georgia, a traditionally red state, is supportive of Kemp and fed up with the governance of the Biden administration, its voters are hesitant about Walker, who has been embroiled in scandal. Running against Biden may not be enough for Republicans to win.
This is likely to be the case in Michigan, where Whitmer’s approval rating is high despite only 38 percent of Michiganders approving of Biden and 57 percent disapproving, according to the Detroit News poll. There may be some factors that make Whitmer’s approval appear a bit higher than it actually is, however. For example, Democrats may be enjoying a bump in the immediate aftermath of the overturning of Roe v. Wade, as Whitmer has tried very hard to make the 2022 election a referendum on abortion. Still, the disparity between her poll numbers and Biden’s is significant. Michiganders already dislike Biden, but they will not be voting on his reelection this fall, meaning Republicans need to focus their attacks primarily on Whitmer.
When the state’s August 2 primary wraps up, the state GOP can put resources into attacking Whitmer and promoting her challenger. Michigan’s gubernatorial race is not a lost cause. There is likely to be a broad red wave across the country, and the Wolverine State can join in if Republicans don’t mess it up. In the three months between the primary and the general, the party will need to do everything it can to publicize the nominee’s name, record, and policy ideas. Voters can be swayed, as we saw in Glenn Youngkin’s upset win in Virginia’s gubernatorial election last year, and Michiganders can be receptive to conservative policies — but not if they don’t know about them.