China has bold plans to conquer space. But first, it will have to learn how to land rockets without scattering debris across the earth.
China has bold plans to conquer space. But first, it will have to learn how to land rockets without scattering debris across the earth.
A Chinese rocket crashed on Saturday into the ocean, potentially taking the communist country’s loftier space ambitions down with it and posing a huge risk to Earth.
NASA stated that Beijing disturbingly declined to share the “specific trajectory information” needed to know where possible debris from its Long March 5B rocket might fall back to Earth.
NASA administrator Bill Nelson said that “all spacefaring nations should follow established best practices and do their part to share this type of information in advance to allow reliable predictions of potential debris impact risk” to use space responsibly and protect people on Earth. The Chinese Manned Space Agency claims most of the debris burned up over the ocean near the Philippines, and the U.S. Space Command said the rocket reentered the atmosphere over the Indian Ocean.
Analysts said the rocket likely began to disintegrate as it plunged through the atmosphere but was large enough that numerous chunks likely survived a fiery reentry to rain debris over an area some 1,240 miles long by about 44 miles wide. The rocket had carried a new laboratory module to China’s Tiangon space station.
In 2020, pieces of a similar Chinese rocket booster fell on a village in Côte d’Ivoire, a country on the southern coast of West Africa, causing some property damage but no injuries. The orbital path of that booster took it over the United States, meaning it was possible for some debris to have rained down on Americans.
Though an uncontrolled crash of a 23-ton Chinese rocket is potentially very dangerous to people on the ground, the refusal to share information about the trajectory of debris still in space could be even more dangerous, as uncontrolled space debris can potentially cascade in what scientists call the Kessler syndrome. Although it’s not clear whether parts of the Chinese rocket remain in space, scientists estimate that such a crash could generate so much debris in orbit that mankind’s ability to safely access space would be jeopardized for generations to come.
China has come a long way since Mao Zedong famously quipped during the U.S.–Soviet space race, “China cannot even put a potato in space.” China’s space program is now among the world’s fastest-growing. Less than two decades after its first taikonaut blasted off in 2003, the country has successfully launched satellites and unmanned Mars and moon missions.
This could be a major setback for Chinese plans to dominate space. After all, it’s hard to get excited about developing a tourist space-plane, successfully deploying the world’s first hack-proof satellite, and even landing a small rover on Mars when chunks of burnt rocket booster may fall on your house. China also plans to explore Jupiter around 2030 and send a manned mission to Mars in 2033, with the ultimate goal of constructing a permanent base on the Red Planet, but the propaganda boost from actually accomplishing such goals would pale in comparison to the damage accidentally knocking out satellite Internet or vaporizing a small town could cause.
The setback marks a departure from the explosive growth of China’s space aspirations. As China’s extraterrestrial ambitions have grown loftier, NASA’s Nelson even accused China of planning to take over the moon in addition to militarizing space and stealing U.S. space technology. “We must be very concerned that China is landing on the moon and saying: ‘It’s ours now, and you stay out,’” he said in early July. Such an action would violate the Outer Space Treaty of 1967, which states that no country is legally allowed to take over the moon.
His accusation prompted a denial from the Chinese. “The U.S. side has constantly constructed a smear campaign against China’s normal and reasonable outer space endeavors, and China firmly opposes such irresponsible remarks,” said Chinese foreign-ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian in a rebuke. “The U.S. is the main driver in turning outer space into a weapon and a battlefield,” Zhao claimed, insisting that China is focused on a “shared future for humanity in outer space.”
But the country’s stated space ambitions clearly signal a desire for national prestige and even dominance in the extraterrestrial sphere — with terrestrial repercussions. “After years of investment and strategy, China is well on its way to becoming a space superpower—and maybe even a dominant one,” reported Popular Science. “Now, satellites guide Chinese aircraft, missiles, and drones, while watching over crop yields and foreign military bases. The growing number of missions involving Chinese rockets and taikonauts [astronauts] are a source of immense national pride.”
Heritage Foundation senior research fellow Dean Cheng, who specializes in Chinese security affairs, wrote in a June report that “Chinese dominance in space will translate into leverage for terrestrial purposes. . . . The PRC clearly recognizes that outer space will be a key domain in [its] competition [with the United States].”
China is increasingly seen as a major U.S. rival in the current space race. While speaking at the International Space Station Research and Development Conference in late July, Representative Robert Aderholt (R., Ala.) cited Chinese moon and Mars missions and the nation’s development of a space station as evidence of China’s ambitions in space. “The obvious threat posed by the Chinese regime must be taken very seriously,” he said, noting Chinese espionage and technology theft from the American space industry. He called for the U.S. to “contain Chinese space ambitions.”
China has been heavily militarizing space as well, even successfully destroying one of its own satellites in orbit. A Pentagon report from this spring, “Challenges to Security in Space,” notes that Chinese and Russian space ambitions may pose a threat to U.S. national security and that the two superpowers have increased their space assets by nearly 70 percent over the past two years. “The drive to modernize and increase capabilities for both countries is reflected in nearly all major space categories — satellite communications, remote sensing, navigation-related, and science and technology demonstration,” says the unclassified report.
Recent events, such as Russia’s announced withdrawal from the International Space Station despite the Biden administration’s pleading, have drawn China’s and Russia’s space programs into closer cooperation that could benefit both countries’ space ambitions.
China’s plans to aim for the stars may have come crashing down to Earth for now, but how the long-term competition for space plays out remains to be seen.