Republican have good chances in a few states, but, in others, much depends on late momentum and polling underestimations.
Republican have good chances in a few states, but, in others, much depends on late momentum and polling underestimations.
T here are 36 governorships at stake this November 8. In my most recent article in National Review magazine, I looked at the issue environment in those races, which feature 15 Republican incumbents, 13 Democratic incumbents, five open Republican-held governorships, and three open Democrat-held governorships. Yesterday, I looked at the polling in the 35 Senate races on the ballot this fall. Today, using the same methodology, I survey how things are going in the governors’ races.
A visible trend in these races underlines the national environment: There are seven races with no public polling at all, six of which are expected to hold Republican governorships in red states (five feature Republican incumbents):
Then, there are the cautions in the polling data, even aside from broader questions about their reliability. The gubernatorial races in Alaska, Arkansas, Kansas, Maine, and Maryland are all conspicuously short on recent polling — amazingly, even the Florida governor’s race hasn’t had a public poll released this month — and it is difficult to apply a “how undecideds will break” method in Alaska’s bizarre new electoral system.
Among the under-polled races, color me deeply skeptical that Derek Schmidt is still trailing Laura Kelly in Kansas by double digits, with plenty of undecided voters, as a single poll found over a month ago. I would also need more than a single poll to be much concerned about Kristi Noem in South Dakota, which hasn’t elected a Democratic governor since 1974. I’m getting flashbacks to some of the terrible fall polling out of Kansas and South Dakota in the 2014 Senate cycle, which drove lots of excitement among left-leaning pundits and donors but did nothing to stop Republicans from winning Kansas by more than ten points and South Dakota by more than 20.
If there is one race about which Republicans are genuinely getting concerned, it is Republican incumbent Kevin Stitt’s in Oklahoma. Stitt, an enrolled member of the Cherokee Nation, appears to have picked unwise fights with the state’s numerous and powerful Native-American tribes over gaming fees and tribal sovereignty in criminal cases, having fought the latter issue all the way to the Supreme Court twice in the past two years. He is facing a longtime Republican who only switched parties to run for governor, and who is trying to brand herself as “aggressively moderate,” “personally pro-life,” and opposed to the Biden administration’s energy policies. The combination of the national environment and Oklahoma’s deep-red partisanship will probably save Stitt, but even a weak reelection would take the shine off his potential for becoming a national figure.
Republicans are certain to lose two GOP-held open governorships in Massachusetts and Maryland, but the outlook seems increasingly solid for Kari Lake’s holding the third in Arizona against a colorless, mumbling opponent, to the point where the conversation has shifted to whether Lake can help Blake Masters in the Senate race.
Turning to the races where Republicans are on offense (aside from Kansas), things are looking bright for Joe Lombardo in his bid to unseat Steve Sisolak as governor of Nevada, Christine Drazan has now led in the last six public polls in Oregon, and Tim Michels is neck-and-neck with Wisconsin governor Tony Evers. The rest of the Republican slate, however, is banking on trends and polling underestimations.
The most encouraging trends are for Lee Zeldin in New York, Scott Jensen in Minnesota, and Michels. Tudor Dixon has gained some ground on Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan, but with Whitmer inching closer to the magic 50-percent mark, Dixon’s hopes have to rest on a major polling miss (not an uncommon feature of Michigan elections). By contrast, the past month has dimmed hopes for Mark Ronchetti in New Mexico and Paul LePage in Maine, to say nothing of Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania.
If there is an optimistic case for a Big Red Wave in the gubernatorial races, it’s that voters are apt to focus first on the Senate and later on some of these races, and are even more likely to make late decisions based on local conditions such as inflation and crime — the issues at the heart of Republican campaigns.
Editor’s note: This article originally misstated the name of Tudor Dixon.