In the Midterms’ Culture War over Transgenderism, Republicans Have the Upper Hand

W hen Mehmet Oz seemed sympathetic to the idea of “transgender children” during a 2010 episode of his show, Dr. Oz, few would have guessed that, over a decade later — in the Republican primary for the U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania — this would be used as a line of attack against him. Oz has responded to such criticism by publicly stating his opposition to medicalized child transition and allowing males into females’ sports. What else could he do? The transgender question is no longer a fringe issue but a measure of electability.

Look at the Senate race in Georgia for another example of how the issue is playing a major role in midterm campaigns. Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock is only slightly ahead of his Republican opponent, Herschel Walker, and among swing voters, culture-war issues may yet prove decisive. Both candidates are black men who identify as Christians. Warnock is progressive whereas Walker has positioned himself against wokeness, accusing ideologues of “poisoning our kids’ minds” by “going into schools and telling little white kids they’re oppressors and little black kids they’re victims.” Walker has also taken aim at Warnock’s views on transgenderism.

At a rally in Canton, Ga., on Tuesday, Walker hosted Riley Gaines, a former NCAA swimmer who was forced to compete against University of Pennsylvania’s male swimmer, Lia (formerly Will) Thomas. “Not only were we being forced to compete against men and change in a locker room with men, but we were also being sidelined to men,” Gaines told the crowd. “That’s why I’m thrilled to stand alongside Herschel Walker.” Walker, a former football star, said: “We don’t have to put up with this and the way we change it is by November — you got to vote and tell ten of your friends they have to vote and vote for Herschel Walker.” Meanwhile, Warnock is a co-sponsor of the so-called Equality Act, a federal bill that, among other evils, would eradicate women-only sports and spaces.

Since the overturn of Roe v. Wade, Republican lawmakers have been recast as aggressors in the culture war. But conservative bills that defend female sports and protect minors from medicalized gender experimentation are easier to sell as defensive measures. Regarding abortion, the prevailing political wisdom is that Republicans should make incremental changes and not get too far ahead of public opinion. But on transgenderism — which concerns preserving the status quo rather than changing it — a more uncompromising approach is called for and, indeed, supported by the American public.

For evidence that the wedge issue has potential, look no further than the latest data from the Pew Research Center. First, sports: Roughly six-in-ten (58 percent) adults favor requiring athletes to compete on teams that match their biological sex, while only 17 percent oppose this idea. Second, on medicalized gender transition for minors: 46 percent favor outlawing the practice compared to 31 percent who oppose doing so. Third, on keeping gender-identity ideology out of elementary schools: 41 percent are in favor, while 38 percent are opposed.

Clearly, Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida has taken the public temperature. He signed a bill protecting women’s sports. He removed his state attorney from office for vowing not to enforce the state’s ban on medicalized gender transition for minors. He also signed the Parental Rights in Education bill into law — legislation that prevents gender ideology from being taught to children in kindergarten through third grade, and prohibits schools from socially transitioning kids behind their parents’ backs. All this was attacked by Democratic politicians and the liberal media, who applied the misnomer “Don’t Say Gay” to the bill. Inconveniently for them, however, the legislation enjoyed the support of over 60 percent of U.S. voters.

Similarly, in purple Virginia, Governor Glenn Youngkin rescinded his Democratic predecessor’s transgender school policy. And in Georgia, Governor Brian Kemp signed the Protect Students First Act which set in motion the Georgia High School Association’s rule that athletes who compete against each other must be of the same biological sex.

Unfortunately, some Republicans have taken a different approach. In 2021, Republican governor of Arkansas, Asa Hutchinson, vetoed the Save Adolescents from Experimentation (SAFE) Act, which protects minors from medicalized gender transition. (The Arkansas General Assembly overrode his veto.) Writing in the Washington Post, Hutchinson described the law preventing children from being subjected to experimental, irreversible, and ideologically motivated drugs and surgeries as “vast government overreach” and a “product of the cultural war in America.” Perhaps that will suffice for readers of the Post. But other audiences, such as that of Tucker Carlson Tonight, to whom Hutchinson gave a flustered defense, may take a different view.

Underestimating the significance of transgender politics can be a costly mistake: a lesson Kristi Noem, the Republican governor of South Dakota, learned the hard way. Noem saw her hard-earned reputation as a GOP rising star crash into that of a conservative sell-out after she issued a style-and-form veto to a bill banning males from females’ sports. In an attempt at damage control, she introduced legislation protecting women’s sports and has emphasized her commitment to the issue in campaign advertisements.

Even Caitlyn (formerly Bruce) Jenner, running for Republican governor in California, recognizes that there ought to be no compromises when it comes to disallowing males in females’ sports.

And even Democrats in need of swing voters have found themselves implicated in the culture war over transgenderism. The Republican Governors Association aired an ad featuring Riley Gaines, the NCAA swimmer who appeared alongside Herschel in Georgia, saying that “If Laura Kelly can’t protect women, she shouldn’t be governor of Kansas.” The incumbent governor responded in an ad of her own, saying: “Of course men should not play girls’ sports. OK, we all agree there.” Perhaps she hopes that none of those swing voters will notice that she has twice vetoed bills protecting women’s sports, or that her campaign website has a petition decrying such bills as “hateful” and “discriminatory.”

Of course, even if transgenderism weren’t a winning issue, resisting it would still be the right thing to do. Given that it is one, however, Republicans are smart to emphasize their commitment to sex-based policies ahead of the midterms.