Florida Is a Red State Now

F lorida’s transformation into a red state happened like Hemingway’s infamous bankruptcy: gradually, and then all at once.

For 30 years, Florida has been tough for the Democrats: The Sunshine State has not elected a Democratic governor since 1994; it has not elected a Democratic legislature since 1992; the last year in which a Senate or presidential candidate won here was 2012; and, in 2018, the only Democrat elected statewide was that lunatic, Nikki Fried. But, while Republicans have tended to win here, they’ve tended to win in nail-biters. Despite Republican waves in the rest of the country, the GOP prevailed in the Florida governor’s races by just 1 percent in 2014 and 1.2 percent in 2010. In 2016, Trump eked out a win by 1.2 percent. In 2020, that number was 3.4 percent. Four years ago, in races that both went to mandatory recounts, Ron DeSantis won the gubernatorial contest by 30,000 votes and Rick Scott won the Senate race by just 10,000. Between 1992 and 2016, voters in Florida filled in 48,263,173 presidential-election ballots. In that time, the difference between the Republican votes and the Democratic votes was just 17,753 — or 0.0004 percentage points of the total. Those 17,753 went to the Democrats.

Now? Something has changed. No longer can Florida be seen as a swing state. This is Republican ground. Tuesday night, Ron DeSantis blew out Charlie Crist by 19 points. . . and counting. This feat was echoed by Marco Rubio, who won by 16; by the Republican candidates for attorney general, chief financial officer, and agriculture commissioner, who all won by ten points or more; in the state legislature, which seems likely to feature Republican supermajorities in both chambers; and by the Republican candidates for the U.S. House of Representatives, who won 20 of their 27 races. For the first time in a long time, Republicans didn’t just win in Florida; they won big in Florida.

And how! The GOP flipped Miami-Dade County — which Hillary Clinton won by 29 points, and which Joe Biden took by seven. It flipped Hillsborough County, Duval County, Pinellas County (Charlie Crist’s home county), Palm Beach County, and Osceola County — all of which went for the Democrats in 2020. Of Florida’s 67 counties, only Broward, Orange, Gadsden, Alachua, and Leon stayed completely blue. What’s that line President Biden likes to stumble through? “This isn’t your father’s Republican Party”? Indeed, so.

What explains this shift? Where to start? It would be tempting to assume that this victory was driven primarily by newly minted Floridians who, in effect, were voting against the states they left. It would also be wrong. Certainly, those people mattered — and they will continue to matter going forward. But this was a perfect storm. It was about a notable shift in what lazy journalists call “the Hispanic vote.” It was about the Democrats’ irresponsible spending in Washington, D.C. It was about the border. It was about Ron DeSantis’s brand as a bulwark against nannyism. It was about the lingering effects of Covid-19 — especially anger with lockdowns and with public schools. It was about Charlie Crist’s weakness. It was about Joe Biden’s reputation. And, above all, it was about a state where the Republican Party has gotten it right — both electorally and politically — for a long time.

It was telling that, as they entered the home stretch of this election, both Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio proceeded as if their opponents did not exist. In sunny, confident, optimistic tones, they talked of Florida and America and freedom as if they, and their ideas, were the only game in town. Which, this time around, they were.