Three of the most closely-watched districts this cycle are TX-15, TX-28, and TX-34. All three are situated in the Rio Grande Valley, a heavily Latino — and traditionally Democratic — region that snakes along the Lone Star State's southern border. Until recently, the RGV's 92 percent Hispanic electorate served as one of the state's deep-blue strongholds. But in recent years, the Tejanos have shifted heavily to the right. Five of the six largest county-level swings toward Trump from 2016 to 2020 occurred in South Texas.
It's not just in presidential elections, either. In 2021, the 86 percent Latino town of McAllen elected its first Republican mayor in decades. The next year, the Mexican-born Republican Mayra Flores flipped the 34th district red for the first time in over a century. Flores is running in post-redistricting lines that are more favorable to Democrats this go-around, but she's accompanied by two other Republican Latinas — Cassy Garcia in TX-28, and Monica De La Cruz in TX-15. The three GOP hopefuls (referred to affectionally as las tres chingonas, or “three badass women,” by local Republican operatives) are a test case for whether the GOP's recent gains with Hispanic voters can stick — both in South Texas and nationwide.
Right now, with 43% of precincts in, Brian Kemp has overtaken Stacey Abrams in Georgia, leading 50.8-48.6, while Herschel Walker still trails Raphael Warnock, 51.9-46.4. That's a net difference of 7.7 points, and Kemp, going into tonight, was polling about 8 points ahead of Abrams. So it's within the range of separation that could be consistent with a Walker victory, but quite close. Still a lot of votes out there.
The Associated Press has called the Arkansas gubernatorial election for Republican Sarah Huckabee Sanders.
Sanders previously served as White House press secretary during the Trump administration.
The numbers out of Florida, particularly Miami-Dade county and Osceola County, are going to blow the minds of people who work inside of politics. Ron DeSantis is winning by such a degree and reaching so deep into the state's Hispanic vote, that everyone that views the political world through excel spreadsheets is going to see him as the leader of the Republican Party.
VA10 update from DecisionDeskHQ. I’m so focused on this one because it could be the sign of a true tsunami, and it’s telling that it’s even close.
DDHQ Race Update (est. 74% in): VA-10
Hung Cao (R): 108,864
(50.42%)
Jennifer Wexton (D): 107,068
(49.58%)
DeSantis and Rubio both appear to have won by a wide margin:
The governor is leading 57.3 percent to Crist’s 42.1 percent with 74 percent of votes counted. DeSantis leads by more than 961,000 votes.
Rubio is leading with 55.8 percent of the vote to Demings’s 43.1 percent with 77 percent of the vote counted. Rubio leads by more than 804,000 votes.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has defeated Democratic challenger Charlie Crist, according to projections from CNN and Fox News. Both outlets project Senator Marco Rubio (R., Fla.) has won reelection as well, defeating Democratic challenger Val Demings.
Florida was widely called for Rubio and DeSantis at 8.01pm ET, when polls closed in the panhandle.
South Florida Sun Sentinel column headline, September 2: “Val Demings has Rubio on the ropes.”
The networks called senator Marco Rubio the winner as soon as the polls closed in the Florida panhandle. With 73 percent of the votes counted, Rubio is ahead, 55 percent to 44 percent.
Very early, but Republican Hung Cao is ahead with 10% reporting in VA10–big-time stretch district for Republicans in VA